Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: EURSEK broken bearish out of triangle pattern and could drop to 11.00
EURNOK formed top and reversal pattern indicating correction down to 11.35 -11.20
EURSEK broke bearish out of Ascending triangle pattern and could drop to the lowest level of the triangle i.e., at around 11.00.
RSI is below the 40 threshold supporting the short-term bearish view.
Medium-term on weekly chart EURSEK has broken below the lower trendline in the rising channel.
Strong support at around 11.00 and 10.75.
Divergence during most of the uptrend since Q4 has indicated the trend was weakening.
If EURSEK closes back above the lower rising trendline the bearish reversal scenario is likely to be demolished and EURSEK could resume uptrend.
EURNOK formed a top and reversal pattern last week and is now testing the lower rising trendline support. A break below is likely send EURNOK further down to key support at around 11.40-11.35.
There is no RSI divergence suggesting this could merely just be a correction before EURNOK is likely to resume uptrend. However, if RSI closes below 40 and EURNOK closes below 11.35 the sell off could be extended to strong support at around 11.20
Medium-term EURNOK is still above its steep rising trendline. No divergence on RSI indicating EURNOK could extend higher.
However, last week EURNOK formed a candle with a tall upper shadow (circled) indicating the power was shifting from buyers to sellers.
For EURNOK to confirm a medium-term downtrend a weekly close below 11.20 is needed. Until then it is merely just a correction.
If the uptrend resumes and takes out the peak form last week at 11.95 there is room up to around 12.60
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.