Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
EURUSD the 200 daily SMA was too much of a resistance for EURUSD to close above despite spiking to 1.05 and closing above resistance at 1.0370. The strong rebound seems to fizzle and EURUSD is testing the upper trendline in the rising channel it broke bullish out of a week ago.
If EURUSD closes back below 1.02 a drop to 1.01 seems likely. A sell-off back down to parity is not out of the question.
It is interesting that almost all Fibonacci retracement levels coincide regardless of measuring from the September or just from the latest move up. That gives the levels more strength.
For EURUSD to extend the current uptrend a close above 1.0482 is needed. An indication of this scenario to play out would be if EURUSD closes back above 1.0370.
The Dollar Index seems to have found support around 160.21. Spiking down bears have tried to push the Dollar index to next key support at 105.52 but has failed with the Dollar Index bouncing from just above 105.
RSI is still showing negative sentiment so it remains to be seen whether this is just a rebound correction or a trend change back to bullish.
However, a rebound to 109.10 (100 SMA and 0.50 retracement) but a move the 0.618 retracement at 110 and a test of the rising trendline should be expected.
If RSI closes above its upper falling trendline it will be an indication of a trend change. A close above 60 will confirm that.
An Dollar Index close above 110.89 will reverse the current downtrend.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
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Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.