FX Update: Is the USD rolling over or will July CPI offer support? FX Update: Is the USD rolling over or will July CPI offer support? FX Update: Is the USD rolling over or will July CPI offer support?

FX Update: Is the USD rolling over or will July CPI offer support?

Forex 5 minutes to read
John Hardy

Head of FX Strategy

Summary:  The market conviction in its forecast for the cycle seems to be strengthening despite recent strong US data. This could mean the US dollar is at risk of rolling over further in the near term, as long as the long end of the US yield curve remains anchored or falls further. Tomorrow’s July CPI release is the most important macro data point of the week, but is the market so convinced of its pricing of the cycle that it is willing to look through yet another hot US data point?

FX Trading focus: How convinced is this market in its cycle forecast?

After the greenback only knee-jerked briefly to the strong side in reaction to both the very strong ISM Services survey last Wednesday and then the even stronger US jobs report on Friday, it’s hard to see why even a somewhat firmer July CPI print tomorrow will drive a more sustained move. For whatever reason, the market seems uninterested in bidding up the dollar on firm US data, even when that brings a solid adjustment higher to the front end of the US yield curve. Perhaps the relative anchoring of the longer end of the US yield curve is the key as the market’s view of how the cycle plays out has continued to solidify despite. This has further inverted the yield curve as the market tweaks the “peak Fed” terminal rate for the end of this year while longer yields have moved far less, resulting in the most inverted 2-10 yield slope since 1982 at -46 bps at one point yesterday, just a few bps above the 40-year record of -51 bps posted in the year 2000 (and back then there was a lot more yield to work with – the 2-year was well north of 6.0% for much of 2000.)

If risk sentiment continues to roll back lower after the surge-and-reverse in equities yesterday and regardless of whether the US July CPI comes in slightly stronger or weaker or inline, the US dollar risks drooping further if US yields remain subdued or lower, but perhaps with more pointed weakness against the EUR and JPY if long US treasury yields push back toward the recent pivot lows. Yesterday, after all, saw the market erasing the bulk of the bump in 10-year treasury yields from Friday’s US jobs report with no real fresh inputs save for the thin excuse yesterday of July inflation expectations dropping sharply in a New York Fed survey (a drop of some 20% in peak June retail gasoline prices by the end of July likely the chief driver there). But who knows, perhaps the market is waiting for this inflation print tomorrow with more anticipation than I realize (my assumption is that the 20% fall back in gasoline prices and a steep fall in crude will have the market wanting to look through any surprisingly high number tomorrow. If the number is to shock, it would be in the details and likely in core month-on-month figures popping more than the +0.5% expected). Certainly, a scenario of higher yields and risk off are the most likely combination to bring USD support.

One wild-card here for treasuries is the auction schedule, with 3-year T-notes on the block today, a 10-year T-note auction up tomorrow and 30-year T-bond auction Thursday.  In short, a risk-off cycle driven by end-of-cycle concerns and a tilt toward recession will likely play very differently in the FX market relative to the bear market move into mid-June driven by the vicious intensification of CB inflation-fighting signaling and pricing.

The EURUSD has traded for three weeks within the 1.01-1.03 range, on the one hand not an impressive performance, given the further mark-down in US yields from the June highs and strong risk sentiment, which often drives a weaker US dollar, but ECB expectations have actually been adjusted lower still, so the 2-year yield spread is near the bottom of the range, and the euro’s resilience despite an onslaught of negative news from the entire natural gas/power situation has been remarkable. Technically this sideways bout of range trading has sucked all of the momentum out of the bear trend, which suggests that the market may need to “recharge” before it can push back lower – a close clear of 1.0300 after the US CPI release tomorrow could drive a considerable squeeze well back into the old range of 1.0500-1.0750, even if it is far too early to call a cycle low. Still, the lack of momentum in either direction for three weeks makes calling a direction difficult – easier to test the market after an actual attempt to move out of the range or to trade long strangles (tough risk reward there even if implied volatility has come in quite a bit.)

Source: Saxo Group

Elsewhere, the AUDUSD has posted a smart reversal in the wake of the Friday US jobs data and looks like a straightforward call for a test toward 0.7250, with major trend implications starting to pick up on a follow through above 0.7150-0.7250, even if we need to take first things first. A key test for that pair is whether a downdraft in risk sentiment would derail a further rally attempt. Watching metals, including gold, for whether AUD can find some renewed support from a commodity angle.

Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.
Waiting stronger trending signals nearly everywhere, but is the strength in metals a key indicator we should be paying attention to here?

Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group

Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.
Hard to trust any signals here as we have a lot of churning and indecision, especially in USD and JPY pairs.

Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group

Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT)

  • 1000 – US Jul. NFIB Small Business Optimism
  • 1100 – Mexico Jul. CPI
  • 1230 – US Q2 Unit Labor Costs / Nonfarm Productivity
  • 1700 – US 3-year T-note auction
  • 2350 – Japan Jul. PPI
  • 0130 – China Jul. PPI / CPI

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/.

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
- Analysis Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/analysis-disclaimer/saxo-analysis-disclaimer)
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000

Contact Saxo

Select region


The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-au/about-us/awards

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.