Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
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Key Stories from the past week: First week of June holds the line
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June began with a tick down in volatility. Sentiment from last week’s Nvidia earnings trickled into this week but was soon outshined by tariff news and rumoured talks between Trump and Xi. Commodities held a lot of market attention across steel, copper, oil and silver price action. The Euro and the Greenback were pushed and pulled with various data releases and a policy decision from the ECB. Stock specific, there were decent price moves Wizz Air, Lululemon, and Broadcom - all on disappointing reportings. More below on this week’s key stories.
Musk vs Trump
Tesla stock fell over 14% on Thursday as an escalating feud between Musk and Trump alarmed investors. The spat peaked when Trump threatened to terminate Musk’s government contracts while Elon made accusations regarding Trumps involvement in the Epstein files.
Musk vs Trump: the political firestorm that's torching Tesla's stock
Silver surges
Silver prices rocketed this week to levels not seen since 2012. A combination of flight to safely, inflation hedge, technical momentum, and relative cheapness to gold - silver is getting demand from multiple angles. Both spot silver and silver futures saw an uptick in client activity.
Commodities weekly
Employment data dump
Tuesdays U.S. JOLTS report showed a jump in job openings indicating labour market strength. Conversely the ADP numbers on Wednesday showed US hiring cooling to slowest pace in 2 years. Friday’s NFP failed to provide much colour with the May number beating estimates, but April and March figures were revised down. Markets are yet to get a clear picture on whether tariffs are hitting the labour market.
U.S. Jobs
Steel Tariffs
Markets can’t go a week without mentioning tariffs, and this week it was steel in the crosshairs. Trump raised steel and aluminium tariffs to 50% to help domestic manufacturers who saw immediate jumps in their share prices. U.S. auto manufacturers on the other hand suffered. Possible exemptions and doubts about the policy’s legal standing have tempered steel price gains.
Trump's 50% Steel Tariff
Next Monday kicks off London Tech week which runs through to the 13th. The Fed communications blackout period begins ahead of their policy meeting June 17-18th. For Data drops, the week is dominated with CPI numbers - China on Monday, US on Wednesday, and Friday sees France, Germany, Poland & Spain.
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