The G-10 rundown
USD – the greenback generally supported heading into today’s important Fed Powell testimony if he surprises on the balance sheet discussion. Otherwise, waiting for US-China trade deal status to ignite bigger trading ranges for USD pairs.
EUR – Yesterday’s ZEW survey suggests a stabilizing outlook for Germany while the current situation measures remained pegged near the multi-year cycle low.
JPY – yields have stabilized a bit overnight and offered the yen a boost, and the currency was already a bit resilient on Japanese long yields rising sharply lately, though much of yesterday’s rally was wiped out overnight – are yields at an inflection point a burning question for currencies.
GBP – sterling remains supported despite not terribly supportive data yesterday as the most recent data point – the October jobless claims, jumped 33k, matching the highest level in over eight years, while the September employment change was far less bad than expected at -58k. The run to new lows in EURGBP has been a cautious affair and hasn’t yet sparked fresh momentum.
CHF – Wolfstreet.com covers the SNB’s crazy accumulation of equities, to the tune of $100 billion – what this means for CHF is not directly discernible, but reserves would go up in smoke in a bad equity correction.
AUD – the latest Australia employment data up tonight and the most important release for the currency at the moment, due to the RBA’s focus.
CAD – the USDCAD pivoted higher, but isn’t exactly setting the world on fire as we await US-China trade deal news an relative economic developments, with the Bank of Canada inclined toward a precautionary cut to edge the BoC rate back slightly below the Fed rate if the next rounds of Canadian data are weak.
NZD – a big shock to the market overnight that could keep NZD rather bid in the crosses, especially in AUNZD if the AU employment data comes in weak.
SEK – awaiting the CPI this morning, but not seeing it as a major catalyst as the Riksbank is determined to edge away from negative rates – SEK needs fiscal stimulus in Sweden and a firmer Euro to put in a more determined show of strength than we saw recently.
NOK – Norway’s GDP nothing write home about as the mainland GDP slightly underperformed expectations at +0.7% QoQ - EURNOK still in limbo after failing to punch down through 10.05.
Today’s Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT)
- 0830 – Sweden Oct. CPI
- 0930 – UK Oct. CPI
- 1000 – Euro Zone Sep. Industrial Production
- 1330 – US Oct. CPI
- 1500 – US Congress Impeachment Hearings
- 1600 – US Fed Chair Powell to Address Congressional Committee
- 1910 – New Zealand RBNZ Governor Orr
- 2350 – Japan Q3 GDP Estimate
- 0030 – Australia Oct. Employment Change