The G-10 rundown
USD – the US dollar relatively firm but not sending any signal just yet, but can’t avoid doing so technically if it pulls another small leg higher here.
EUR – the euro stumbling this morning after Lagarde’s announcement. EURUSD focus on 1.1000 if weakness extends below 1.1050.
JPY – could be interesting EURJPY downside on the assumption of ECB activism, but looks like little to differentiate EURUSD and EURJPY directionally. USDJPY hopelessly rangebound for now.
GBP – sterling suffering further weakness as flash November Services PMI dives below 50 to 48.6, the worst since just after the 2016 Brexit vote, but everything is about how the election shapes up and how profoundly Boris Johnson’s eventual fiscal impulse and capital inflows support sterling.
CHF – EURCHF pushing on 1.1000, but the technical level of note is higher at 1.1050, while USDCHF focus is on parity if the greenback mini-rally blossoms into something more.
AUD – AUDUSD looking heavy near the downside pivot around 0.6770 at times this morning. Risk appetite and the fate of the US-China trade deal likely the key drivers for whether we are pushed over the edge for a test of the lows below 0.6700.
CAD – the loonie vulnerable to weakening US data, independent of USD direction, but Canada’s Sep. Retail Sales data up later today.
NZD – AUDNZD getting into the strategic “cheap zone”, but need a negative NZD catalyst to offer confidence that we aren’t in for a bigger test lower.
SEK – EURSEK turning lower again and teasing for a break lower – is the Riksbank’s policy of getting back to zero a harbinger of what is to come from the ECB? Market certainly not playing the euro that way and would like the outlook for a firmer SEK better if EUR also firm. Riksbank’s Jansson was out this morning saying that he saw no major adverse impact from the forecast rate hike for December.
NOK – oil prices supportive again, but need that break down through 10.00 in EURNOK to get a sense that the lows are in for the krone.
Today’s Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT)
- 1300 – Germany Bundesbank’s Weidmann to speak
- 1330 – Canada Sep. Retail Sales
- 1445 – US Nov. Flash Markit Manufacturing and Services PMI
- 1500 – US Final Nov. University of Michigan sentiment
- 1600 – US Nov. Kansas City Fed