Head of FX Strategy
Summary: This is the first release of the Beta of our new FX Breakout Monitor, a look at FX crosses – and gold and silver in USD terms – and whether they are trading near or at breakout levels on short- and medium-term time frames.
Our new FX Breakout monitor looks at the major FX pairs and crosses as well as a handful of emerging market crosses versus the US dollar and spot silver and gold. The breakout overview hopefully offers a quick way to highlight the currency pairs that are nearing a breakout level – or have just broken out – and to highlight the signals we find interesting.
The overview is geared more towards new signal discovery rather than highlighting FX pairs that have broken out some time ago and are already trending and posting a string of new highs or lows. Note the PDF link here if you would prefer to view off-line. A few explanatory notes to follow soon on the table contents.
In the future, this overview will accompany standard trade setups for trading breakout signals that could be of interest, in the hope that the breakout sets a solid trending move in motion. Stay tuned for much more.
Today’s SaxoStrats FX Breakout Monitor snapshot (keep in mind that it is a snapshot only and could change before the close of the day’s trading.) Click here for PDF version.
Two signals today: EURCHF (19-day and 49-day downside) and XAGUSD (19-day upside) breakouts:
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
