Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Medium-term analysis of some of the main Industries and Sectors in USA. Charts are all weekly time period and ETF’s are being used.
This Sector and Industry analysis is planned to be updated bi-weekly and/or when there are some interesting developments. This analysis is planned to be with just short comments and explanations with direction and key support and resistance levels.
Industrial
Range bound. Bounced from lower range support at 96.30 and 55 weekly Moving Average. If closing below Industrial is likely drop to around 90 i.e., 200 MA. Close above 104.20 likely new highs
Energy
Energy jumped back above resistance at 82.65. Weekly RSI didn’t close below 40 gave upside energy for a strong bounce. If RSI closes back above its falling trendline and above 60 expect Energy to test previous highs around 93-95.
If closing the gap and back below 82.65 bear trend is likely to unfold.
Oil & Gas
Oil & Gas closed below rising trendline breaking bearish out of Symmetrical Triangle like pattern only to bounce strongly from key support at 114.58.
Currently t4esting rising trendline. A close back above and above 55 weekly Moving Average could push Oil&Gas higher towards 146 resistance possibly testing upper falling trendline
If rejected at the rising trendline Oil & Gas could slide back towards support at 114.58
Metals and Mining Industry
Has broken below lower rising trendline in the Rising Wedge like pattern only to bounce from key support at around 48.48. A close below could fuel another sell off down around 40.
A close back above the lower falling trendline is likely to result in Metals and Mining to resume uptrend
Financial
Financials took out several support levels including key support at around 33.19. The Sector is in a downtrend supported by RSI showing negative sentiment which is an indicating of lower levels.
Materials
Materials should be considered range bound. RSI still positive indicating the break below support 76.66 is a false break. Range: 75.50 for 65.00 – 84.60 for 90.61
Utilities
Dipped below 200 weekly Moving Average to the 0.786 retracement but has managed to close back above 200 MA. If Utilities can close above 68.80 there could be upside to around 72.50-75.00.
A close below the 200 weekly Moving Average is likely to result in Utilities extending downtrend with 2022 lows around 60 as first target.
RSI is showing negative sentiment that could accelerate if RSI breaks back below 40. For Utilities to reverse the downtrend a close above 72.50 is needed with first indication of that scenario to play out would be a close above 68.80
Retail
Bearish trend. RSI is still showing positive sentiment, however, indicating what we are seeing could just be a correction. But if Retail cannot close back above 200 MA the outlook is bearish with a potential move to 55 support. 55 weekly Moving Average putting a lid on the upside potential.