Technical Update - SP 500 cancelling reversal pattern. Nasdaq 100 likely to follow. New all-time highs in the cards Technical Update - SP 500 cancelling reversal pattern. Nasdaq 100 likely to follow. New all-time highs in the cards Technical Update - SP 500 cancelling reversal pattern. Nasdaq 100 likely to follow. New all-time highs in the cards

Technical Update - SP 500 cancelling reversal pattern. Nasdaq 100 likely to follow. New all-time highs in the cards

Equities 3 minutes to read
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

  • The S&P 500's (and US500) new peak and the outlook on the 0.618 extension at 5,296 highlight its bullish momentum.
  • The Nasdaq 100's ability to hold above 17,808 (17,780 on USNAS100 cfd) and its potential challenge to the 18,417 level are key factors in its next potential moves.

The S&P 500 has invalidated its earlier top and reversal pattern by closing at a new high yesterday. This development followed the index's rebound from its steep rising trend line, with the S&P 500 now mirroring the length of its rise from October 2022 through July 2023, as depicted on the weekly chart.

Yesterday's higher close opens the door to more upside potential, with the next significant level being the 0.618 Fibonacci extension at 5,296, identified as a potential target derived from the "Cup with Handle" pattern.
A daily RSI close above its upper falling trendline would lend additional support to this bullish scenario.

No divergence on the weekly RSI suggests that the index could achieve even higher levels

A close below 5,057 would signal a reversal of the current bullish trend

Source all charts and data: Saxo Group

US500 cfd: At the time of writing the US500 is trading higher testing all-time highs and the RSI is above its falling trendline. If closing above the falling trendline it it will be a strong  indication of higher US500 levels. Key strong support at 5,048.  

The Nasdaq 100 Index has tested and maintained the crucial support level of 17,808 on two occasions, a bullish indicator.
Following these tests, the index rebounded, closing back above its rising trendline.

Although the Bearish Engulfing top and reversal pattern remains in play, it may be contested in today's session. A close above 18,417 would invalidate this pattern, setting the stage for the index to target higher levels, potentially reaching 18,812 to 19,048 in the short term.

Despite significant divergence in the RSI (Relative Strength Index), a close above the 60 threshold would bolster the case for further upside.

On the weekly chart, the Nasdaq 100 met resistance at the 0.786 Fibonacci extension at 18,374, but a new high could open the path towards 19,550.

Conversely, a daily close below 17,808 will reverse the bullish trend

USNAS100 cfd is trading higher pre-market testing all-time highs indicating the top and reversal on the Cash Index Nasdaq 100 is likely to be invalidated
If that scenario plays out there is short-term upside potential to 18,822-19,072

Key strong support at around 17,780. A close below is likely fueling a sell-off


Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (
- Analysis Disclaimer (
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000

Contact Saxo

Select region


The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.