Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
The Nasdaq 100 closed on Friday right at the crucial support level of 17,808. If it closes below this level, it could trigger a sell-off towards the next support at around 17,478, with a potential drop to approximately 17,000.
The bearish engulfing top and reversal pattern is still a significant factor, and a close above its peak at 18,417 is required to negate this pattern and signal a resumption of the uptrend.
Over the past two months, the RSI has been showing divergence, which needs to be resolved either by closing below 40 threshold or by making a new high. The more likely scenario seems to be a close below the 40 thresholds, indicating a possible correction down to around 17,000
USNAS 100 cfd levels. Bouncing from key strong key support at 17,780.If broken next support and 17,159
S&P 500. The bearish engulfing top and reversal pattern is also in play here. To negate this pattern, the index would need to close above its peak at 5,190.
S&P 500 is currently testing the rising trendline, and a close below the key support at 5,057 is critical. If it closes below this level, the index could hit byu a sell-off down to around 5,000.
The RSI divergence observed over the past two months needs to resolve by either closing below 40 or achieving a new high.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.