Log in Open account
Australia
Technical Update - EURUSD testing 200 DMA, USDJPY finding bids and Dollar Index back to 104.40? Technical Update - EURUSD testing 200 DMA, USDJPY finding bids and Dollar Index back to 104.40? Technical Update - EURUSD testing 200 DMA, USDJPY finding bids and Dollar Index back to 104.40?

Technical Update - EURUSD testing 200 DMA, USDJPY finding bids and Dollar Index back to 104.40?

Equities 3 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Summary:  EURUSD sold off heavily after being rejected at 1.10. Will it test 107.65 support?
USDJPY below 147 but finding bids
Dollar Index bouncing but can it bounce to 104.40 resistance

EURUSD seems to be in correction mode after being rejected at 1.10 resistance followed by a bearish break out of the rising wedge like pattern.
Currently finding support, and bouncing, from the 0.382 retracement at 1.0826. A break below 1.0820 could see EURUSD testing strong support at around 1.0762. However, a dip down to the 0.618 retracement at 1.0708 should not be ruled out.

However, the uptrend is intact supported by positive sentiment on the RSI and no divergence, indicating EURUSD is trading higher after a correction

There is some conflict between the medium- and longer term trends illustrated by the 100 Daily Moving Average declining and the 200 DMA rising which can result in a tug of war between Bulls and Bears around the Moving Average levels i.e. current levels and 1.0760
Source all charts and data: Saxo Group
USDJPY seems to be finding some support at the 0.382 retracement at 146.30. Trend is confirmed down however, supported by negative sentiment on RSI. A break below today’s low at 146.20 is likely to see another round of sell-off down top support at around 144.75.
But a dip down to the 0.618 retracement should not be ruled out.
For USDJPY to reverse to uptrend a close above 149.75 is needed

The Dollar Index is bouncing to test the 200 DMA but downtrend is intact. Bounce could continue to test upper falling trend line possibly spiking to test key strong resistance at around 104.40

RSI is showing negative sentiment with no divergence indicating lower Index levels are likely. A move to the 0.618 retracement at 102.21 with a spike down to test support at around 101.60 could be seen. That could be an exhaustive move but it remains to be seen and confirmed.

If The Dollar Index bounces to close above 101.40 the current bearish picture is demolished

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article

  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article

  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article

  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article

  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article
Disclaimer

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/.

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
- Analysis Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/analysis-disclaimer/saxo-analysis-disclaimer)
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000
Australia

Contact Saxo

Select region

Australia
Australia
Products & pricing
Asset Management
    Platforms
    Accounts & service
    General
    Other
    Legal

    Trading can result in losses. Please ensure you understand the risks.

    The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-au/about-us/awards

    Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

    Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

    Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

    The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

    Please click here to view our full disclaimer.