Macro: Sandcastle economics
Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Technical Update - DAX & AEX25 in down trends. CAC40 range bound. BEL20 correction
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: DAX/GER40 and AEX25/NETH25 are in confirmed downtrends. CAC40/FRA40 range bound. BEL20/BELG20 in correction phase that could turn to bearish trend
DAX seems to be finding some support at the 0.786 retracement. The trend is down supported by negative RSI sentiment.
Strong support at around 15,482.
However, with the almost flat 55 Moving Average and the rising 100 and 200 Moving Averages DAX could find itself range bound between 16K and 15,485 for quite some time with sentiment to the downside.
To demolish the bearish picture and resume to uptrend a close above 16,060 is needed.
GER40 cfd bouncing from 0.786 retracement at 15,682- Trend is down supported by negative RSI sentiment indicating GER40 could test support at around 15,500
AEX 25/NETH25 cfd are in a downtrend following the sell/off yesterday where the index closed below 763.
This morning AEX is opening below the Cloud and the RSI is currently below 40 threshold. If that picture still stands at the end of the day (or tomorrow for that matter) the down trend is further confirmed.
Strong support at around 748 could be tested in a few days.
A close below 748 could push AEX down to 740-735 area.
To reverse the down trend a close above 781 is needed.
BEL20/BELG20 cfd closed below support at around 3,676 only to find support at the 0.50 retracement at 3,654.
The 55 daily Moving Average will offer some support RSI is still holding on above 40 threshold.
The BEL20 index could be sandwiched between the 55 and the 200 Moving Averages for some time before a clear direction. However, if the RSI is closing below 40 expect further downside. Quite likely to around 3,550.
A close above 3,747 uptrend will resume.
The 55 daily Moving Average will offer some support RSI is still holding on above 40 threshold.
The BEL20 index could be sandwiched between the 55 and the 200 Moving Averages for some time before a clear direction. However, if the RSI is closing below 40 expect further downside. Quite likely to around 3,550.
A close above 3,747 uptrend will resume.
CAC 40 is once again testing support at 7,251 and the lower part of the Cloud. RSI is still in positive sentiment and the 21, 55 and 100 Moving Average are in tight range and almost flatlined. The Index seems quite range bound.
A close below 7,250 is likely to lead to a sell-off down to strong support at around 7,083. The 200 Moving Average will offer some support.
To resume uptrend a close above 7,465 is needed
FRA40 cfd opened below the Cloud this morning only to jump back in. The FRA40 could be range bound for a few more days and needs to close below 7,217 for downside momentum.
RSI still positive sentiment
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3
Sandcastle economics
-
-
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.
-
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.
-
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.
-
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.
Disclaimer