Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Uptrend in DAX could test all-time highs within a few weeks. EuroStoxx50 ready to break its all-time high
DAX is finding support at the previous peak at 15,706 and could trade higher going in to May. RSI positive sentiment with no divergence indicates higher levels for DAX. There is room up to strong resistnace level at around 16,290
If DAX cannot keep up and slides back to close below 15,706 a correction could be seen to test the 15,500 level. A close below 15,482 could fuel a sell off down to 15K.
GER40 cfd levels: Support at 15,706. Trend reversal if breaking below 15,479. Uptrend likely to continue to 1.382 projection at 16,184 possibly testing all-time highs
EuroStoxx50 is with in cents from its All-time highs at 4,415. A close above could push the Index higher to the 1.618 projection at 4,536.
There is minor divergence on RSI suggesting the uptrend is weakening but the trend is still up. Stoxx50 will need to close below 4,286 to reverse that.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.