Quarterly Outlook
Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.
For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.
VIX rose to 15.66 (+2.55%) as market uncertainty increased. VIX1D spiked 20.17%, reflecting near-term risk hedging. Traders piled into VIX call options, raising concerns of a potential volatility squeeze. Analysts warn that dealers are heavily short gamma, which could amplify market swings if volatility spikes further.
Bitcoin nears $100K as SEC softens crypto oversight. BTC traded at $98,395 (+0.10%), while Ethereum (ETH +0.67%) remained steady. XRP (-1.29%) and Solana (-0.17%) lagged. Crypto stocks saw mixed action, with IBIT (+2.54%), Marathon Digital (+1.08%), and Riot Platforms (+0.35%) gaining. The SEC’s decision to scale back its crypto enforcement unit lifted sentiment, pushing crypto market capitalization to $3.23 trillion (+1.49%).
The US dollar traded on the weak side yesterday on Secretary of Treasury comments on issuing longer term debt and Fed QT policy as US long yields fell. EURUSD teased above 1.0500 and USDJPY traded as low as 149.29 overnight before rallying sharply on BoJ comments on intervening in the Japanese Government bond market overnight (see above in Fixed Income).
For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.
Q3 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity