Summary: May Day brings sweet news for Apple investors as the stock shoots up more than 5%,, and there's also some suggestion that Friday's nonfarm payrolls might be stronger than expected. Until then, we have the Fed policy meeting to chew over this evening.
Apple (AAPL: Nasdaq) shares are up over 5.3% in early trading thanks to a higher than expected guidance for the next quarter and a plan to spend $77.0 billion in a stock buy-back. Earnings per share, at $2.46, beat the forecast of $2.36/share as did revenue which rose to $58.02 billion. (forecast $57.37 bio). Traders ignored the fact that the quarterly revenue was 5% lower than Q1 2019 and instead drew comfort from the Q2 guidance.
Apple’s results were a sweet treat for Wall Street. The three major indices are higher in early trading with this morning’s surprisingly strong ADP employment report providing an assist. ADP said that private sector employment rose by 275,000 jobs in March, which to some, means that Friday’s nonfarm payrolls may be higher than expected.
May Day holidays around the world, the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee policy statement and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference have FX markets spinning their wheels today. Those expecting a “non-event” FOMC meeting could be surprised. The prevailing wisdom suggests the Fed will “be patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate to support these outcomes”.
They won’t cave to Trump’s latest harangue, via Twitter, to lower rates. Nevertheless, the Fed is on record for stating that monetary policy decisions are “data dependent”. Most of the recent data that they depend on, has been on the strong side which not only muted chatter of a looming recession but could change the tone of the FOMC statement. If so, the US dollar will resume its uptrend.
The weaker than expected ISM Manufacturing Index (Actual 52.8 vs forecast 55.0) boosted EURUSD to 1.1243. A break above 1.1270 would shift the focus to 1.1360. A move below 1.1210 would target 1.1150.