Technical Update - US 10 years yields in for a correction to 2.50%
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
US 10 years yield reached inverted Shoulder-Head-Shoulder price target a few points below the 2019 high at 3.25%. It seems to be correction time.
On the daily chart a Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern has been confirmed after yield broke below the Neckline.
The vertical arrows indicate the potential target levels i.e. around 2.5% . That is also around where there is a cluster of Fibonacci levels AND more or less in the middle of the consolidation area 2.55-2.31.
RSI showing divergence indicating we are to see lower yield levels. Look out for potential Pullback where yield could test Neckline from the underside before resume down move. If a Pullback pulls the yield back above the Neckline the SHS pattern is demolished and 3.25% is likely to be tested.
The Interest rate future has formed identical picture, inverted obviously and broken bullish out of its short term down trend. 122 12/32 – 123 levels is likely price targets.
If Future prices drop below the falling Neckline lows around 117 are likely to be tested and medium term and longer term down trend resumes.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.