Macro: Sandcastle economics
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Technical Update - Gold, Silver, Platinum and Copper warming up for higher prices
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Copper broken key resistance level and is set for higher prices
Gold is once again struggling at 1,680
Silver and Platinum testing key resistance levels. Likely to break higher
Gold/Silver ratio looks heavy
Gold XAUUSD is struggling to break back above the 1,680 level that acts like a pivot where gold has been revolving the past couple of months. 55 SMA is also once again Acting as a strong resistance. RSI is also struggling to break above 60 threshold to switch to positive sentiment.
If Gold closes above 1,608 next key resistance is at around 1,735. A close above 1,735 will reverse or at least demolish the current medium-term downtrend and the Double top picture as illustrated on the weekly chart.
If that scenario plays out – a close above 1,735 – the major key resistance is at 1,808.
If gold closes above 1,735 the previously mentioned possible double top pattern scenario is demolished. See weekly
Silver XAGUSD seems to be the front runner together with Copper. Silver looks set to break the wide range between 17.50 and 21.25. RSI is above 60 i.e., positive sentiment. If Silver can close above 21.25 the uptrend is confirmed. Resistance at around 22.51.
On the weekly Silver has formed an inverted Shoulder-Head-Shoulder like pattern. It is not the most perfect SHS pattern but, nevertheless. If Silver closes above the neckline the pattern will be confirmed and a potential target of around 25, depending on the neckline price break.
A close above the neckline is also likely to push the weekly RSI to close above 60 threshold i.e., positive sentiment
If Silver fails to close above 21.24 and slides back leading weekly RSI to close below its rising trendline it would be a strong indication of Silver demolishing the SHS pattern and a test of Q3 lows will be in the cards.
Gold/Silver XAUXAG ratio has broken below medium-term rising trend line testing minor support at 79.30. Weekly RSI is still above 40 but is likely to break below if Gold/Silver closes below 79 thereby going into negative sentiment.
However, th4e short and medium-term trend is down. An RSI close below 40 will confirm that. Gold/Silver seems likely to drop to key support at around 75.25. For the ratio to reverse that scenario it needs to close above 90.70. Above back above the 86.24 could be an indication of that scenario to unfold.
However, th4e short and medium-term trend is down. An RSI close below 40 will confirm that. Gold/Silver seems likely to drop to key support at around 75.25. For the ratio to reverse that scenario it needs to close above 90.70. Above back above the 86.24 could be an indication of that scenario to unfold.
Platinum XPTUSD broke out of its symmetrical triangle pattern a few weeks ago. Tested the upper falling trendline from the upper side and took off. Yesterday’s close above 975 has confirmed the uptrend supported by positive sentiment on RSI.
Potential target after the triangle break out is illustrated by the vertical arrows is in the 1,072-1,095 area which is 1.618 and 1.764 projections of the top to trough of the triangle. Resistance at 1,035
For this picture to be demolished Platinum must close below 912.
Copper closed Friday above resistance at 359.30 and RSI above 60 thereby in positive sentiment. Copper is set for higher levels towards 400 with resistance at around 378.
If Copper drops back below 336 the bullish picture is demolished and likely reversed.
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