Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Gold XAUUSD is struggling to break back above the 1,680 level that acts like a pivot where gold has been revolving the past couple of months. 55 SMA is also once again Acting as a strong resistance. RSI is also struggling to break above 60 threshold to switch to positive sentiment.
If Gold closes above 1,608 next key resistance is at around 1,735. A close above 1,735 will reverse or at least demolish the current medium-term downtrend and the Double top picture as illustrated on the weekly chart.
If that scenario plays out – a close above 1,735 – the major key resistance is at 1,808.
If gold closes above 1,735 the previously mentioned possible double top pattern scenario is demolished. See weekly
Silver XAGUSD seems to be the front runner together with Copper. Silver looks set to break the wide range between 17.50 and 21.25. RSI is above 60 i.e., positive sentiment. If Silver can close above 21.25 the uptrend is confirmed. Resistance at around 22.51.
On the weekly Silver has formed an inverted Shoulder-Head-Shoulder like pattern. It is not the most perfect SHS pattern but, nevertheless. If Silver closes above the neckline the pattern will be confirmed and a potential target of around 25, depending on the neckline price break.
A close above the neckline is also likely to push the weekly RSI to close above 60 threshold i.e., positive sentiment
If Silver fails to close above 21.24 and slides back leading weekly RSI to close below its rising trendline it would be a strong indication of Silver demolishing the SHS pattern and a test of Q3 lows will be in the cards.
Platinum XPTUSD broke out of its symmetrical triangle pattern a few weeks ago. Tested the upper falling trendline from the upper side and took off. Yesterday’s close above 975 has confirmed the uptrend supported by positive sentiment on RSI.
Potential target after the triangle break out is illustrated by the vertical arrows is in the 1,072-1,095 area which is 1.618 and 1.764 projections of the top to trough of the triangle. Resistance at 1,035
For this picture to be demolished Platinum must close below 912.
Copper closed Friday above resistance at 359.30 and RSI above 60 thereby in positive sentiment. Copper is set for higher levels towards 400 with resistance at around 378.
If Copper drops back below 336 the bullish picture is demolished and likely reversed.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.