Technical Update - Natural gas and Crude oil testing key supports. Can they hold and rebound or break lower? Technical Update - Natural gas and Crude oil testing key supports. Can they hold and rebound or break lower? Technical Update - Natural gas and Crude oil testing key supports. Can they hold and rebound or break lower?

Technical Update - Natural gas and Crude oil testing key supports. Can they hold and rebound or break lower?

Commodities 4 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Dutch Gas opened today Monday 19th September below its key support €187.50 and is hovering around the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at 178.42. Dutch gas Is short-term in a down trend and could drop further to next key support at 152. If that scenario plays out RSI has moved below 40 threshold and turned negative.
But if RSI does not close below 40 a rebound could be seen. There is no divergence on RSI above 60 so if RSI does not cancel that picture by a close below 40 the bullish sentiment is still intact. Bottom line; Today’s trading – or rather the closing of today’s trading - is likely to be key.

Source: Saxo Group

Henry Hub gas is testing the key support at 7.55 in what could be the Neckline of a Shoulder-Head-Shoulder like pattern. It is not the most perfect pattern as one could argue it is just huge volatility in a broader time series. To be a perfect SHS pattern there should be no uptrend and peak April through June.
Nevertheless, if Henry Hub gas closes below the (Neckline) support there is room down to June/July lows at around 5.35.
However, there is strong support at the 0.764 Fibonacci retracement at 6.44 where the 200 daily SMA also will add to that support area.
For Henry Hub to demolish this picture a close above 9.24 i.e., the right shoulder is needed.

Source: Saxo Group

Brent Crude oil trading in a falling wedge like pattern is likely to have another go at the support at 87.70. If it closes below 87.70 and if RSI breaks below its lower slightly rising trendline with a likely lower value to follow, and Brent is likely to drop further to support at 83.00.
To reverse the selling pressure in Brent it needs to break above 95.80 for a correction around $100.
But to reverse the down trend a close above 105.50 is needed

Source: Saxo Group

WTI Crude oil trading in a falling channel is likely to test key support at 81.90 once again. A close below next support is at 78.48 and stronger support at 74.27.
RSIU is back below 40 with no divergence supporting a scenario with lower levels in WTI.
If WTI find buyers that can lift the oil price above 90.20 a correction up to around the upper falling trendline and possibly to around 97-98 could be seen.



Source: Saxo Group

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article
Disclaimer

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/.

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
- Analysis Disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-au/legal/analysis-disclaimer/saxo-analysis-disclaimer)
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000
Australia

Contact Saxo

Select region

Australia
Australia

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-au/about-us/awards

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.