COT: Reversal risk looms as funds cut commodity exposure
Head of Commodity Strategy
Summary: Hedge funds and money managers continue to slash bullish commodity bets.
To download your copy of the Commitment of Traders: Commodity report for the week ending May 15, click here.
Hedge funds kept up the selling pressure across key commodities during the week to May 14. Fears of the trade war leading to lower growth, demand concerns and ample stocks of several key agriculture commodities have been the main drivers behind the current slump. The one-third reduction last week reduced the net-long to just 147k lots, the lowest since January 2016.
The agriculture sector remains the hardest hit with short positions being held in all but a couple of livestock contracts. Bullish bets are concentrated in crude oil and products due to tightening supply and raised concerns about the stability in the Middle East. Gold, meanwhile, was left exposed after the failed break above $1,300/oz attracted the largest amount of buying since December.
Note: See page 3 in the attached report for detailed descriptions of the different data points in the report.
The Brent forward curve indicates the tightest market in five years and short-sellers have responded by staying firmly on the sidelines throughout the recent price correction.
Interest for silver remains muted as can be seen in its performance both against the dollar but also against gold. The XAUXAG ratio remains stuck at multi-decade high with the main source of demand from financial investors currently benefiting gold the most amidst focus on safe-haven allotment and growth concerns. The lack of interest was on display last week with the net-short hardly changing while funds rushed into gold.
Funds sold HG copper for a fifth consecutive week with the net-short hitting a 15-week low of 35k lots. This came in response to recent price weakness driven by worries that trade tensions could weigh on the outlook for demand. Platinum’s recent strong run, both against the dollar but also against gold, also continues to run out of steam. Last week the net-long was cut 27% to 13k lots, a six-week low.
The grains sector was mixed last week with the soybeans net-short continuing to expand; corn selling slowed while CBOT wheat was bought for a second week. Wet weather planting delays across the US Midwest have triggered short-covering in both corn and wheat. The combination of the risk of lower acreage and lower production, combined with a major short position, has been a potent cocktail for corn, which last week ended up posting its best weekly performance since 2015.
Note: The USDA publishes its “Planting Progress” reports on Mondays at 20:00 GMT.
The Commitments of Traders (COT) report is issued by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) every Friday at 15:30 EST with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. The report breaks down the open interest across major futures markets from bonds, stock index, currencies and commodities. The ICE Futures Europe Exchange issues a similar report, also on Fridays, covering Brent crude oil and gas oil.
In commodities, the open interest is broken into the following categories: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User; Swap Dealers; Managed Money and other.
In financials the categories are Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Managed Money and other.
Our focus is primarily on the behaviour of Managed Money traders such as commodity trading advisors (CTA), commodity pool operators (CPO), and unregistered funds.
They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged. This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments. It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook Q3 2022: The Runaway Train
- Central banks' attempts to kill inflation is a paradigm shift, which could end in a deep recession.
Tangible assets and profitable growth are the winnersWith US equities officially in a bear market, the big question is where and when is the bottom in the current drawdown?
Understanding the lack of investment appetite among oil majorsThe everything rally seen in recent quarters has become more uneven, as its strength is driven by commodities in short supply.
The pressure is on as the wind leaves the sailsWith cryptocurrencies in sharp decline, are we entering a crypto winter or is the bear market a healthy clean-up of the crypto space?
Why the Fed can never catch up and what turns the US dollar lower?Many other central banks are set to eventually outpace the Fed in hiking rates, taking their real interest rates to levels higher than the Fed will achieve.
Bank of Japan: Swimming against the tideThe Japanese economy has gone from the age of deflation to rapidly rising prices in no time, leaving the Bank of Japan in a pickle.
Green transformation detour and bear market hibernationWith the impending risk of global econonomic derailment, we share the five things investors need to consider in this new half year.
Crisis redux for the eurozone?Whether there's going to be a recession in Europe or not, the path towards a stable economy will be agonizing.
Technical Outlook: Gold, Oil and a remarkable multi-decade perspective on EquitiesThe Nasdaq bubble pattern, USDJPY resistance, crude oil uptrend losing steam and the technical outlook for USD.
China: the train of new development paradigm left the station two years agoChina is transiting to a new development paradigm, as they are hit by deteriorating terms of trade, a slower global economy and an uncertain future while continuing attempts to contain the pandemic.