This summary highlights futures positions and changes made by speculators such as hedge funds and CTA’s across 24 commodities up until last Tuesday, October 6. This was the week where President Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis helped support the prospects both for stimulus and an easier election win by Joe Biden as he extended his advantage in opinion polls. In response to these developments, the S&P 500 traded higher by 1% while the dollar was slightly softer. The big move, however occurred at the far end of the U.S. yield curve, with yields on 10 and 30-year bonds surging to a four-month high. Commodities, led by oil and grains traded higher on hurricane and dry weather concerns.
In the week, the Bloomberg Commodity Index, rose by 1.6% with the rally being led by a surging grains sector on dry weather concerns followed by crude oil and fuel products on U.S. hurricane and Norwegian strike threats. Speculators meanwhile increased their total long across 24 commodities by 7% to 2 million lots, the highest since May 2018. The buying was concentrated in natural gas, soybeans, corn, wheat and sugar. Others like oil saw net-selling despite higher prices while copper, cocoa and coffee were also sold. Small gold buying was seen ahead of the rally back above $1900/oz.