Details Cookies
Cookie Policy

This website uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience by enabling, optimising and analysing site operations, as well as to provide personalised ad content and allow you to connect to social media. By choosing “Accept all” you consent to the use of cookies and the related processing of personal data. Select “Manage consent” to manage your consent preferences. You can change your preferences or retract your consent at any time via the cookie policy page. Please view our cookie policy here and our privacy policy here

Technical Update - US & EU 10-year yields set to move higher. March peaks could be tested  Technical Update - US & EU 10-year yields set to move higher. March peaks could be tested  Technical Update - US & EU 10-year yields set to move higher. March peaks could be tested

Technical Update - US & EU 10-year yields set to move higher. March peaks could be tested

Bonds 4 minutes to read
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Summary:  US 10-year Treasury yields bouncing from key support a third time building foundation for higher yields. Resistance at 3.70 is key for +4% levels
German Government 10-year yields (EuroBund) in an uptrend eyeing 3% possibly higher
Futures are included in this analysis

US 10-year Treasury yields have formed a triple bottom pattern at the 3.25-3.28 level. Last week yields formed a Hammer/Morning Doji Star like pattern (It is not text book perfect, ideally the body of the bullish candle following the Doji should not cover the Doji body) that is an indication of a bottom and reversal.
Yields have since been on the rise and is closing in on the strong resistance area at 3.65-3.70; the 55 and the 100 Mas are coming down providing resistance and the Cloud bottom is at 3.70. A close above 3.70 is likely to fuel another rally in yields to around 4.00 - 4.10% as illustrated with the vertical arrows.

If 10-year yields slide back below 200 MA the support at around 3.28 could be tested once again.

Source: Saxo Group

Medium-term 10-year yields are in a downtrend but the weekly RSI is still showing positive sentiment. If yields move higher lifting the RSI back above its falling trend line the downtrend could have come to an end and be reversed. If weekly RSI close above 60 the trend is likely to be reversed. A yield close above 4.09 will further confirm that.
If the reversal scenario plays out higher yields above 4.33 is in the cards.

Source: Tradingview

The US 10-year T-Note has formed a top and reversal pattern; Evening Doji Star like pattern with a Gravestone Doji. The T-Note future is testing support at around 114 7/32. A break below key support is at around 113 9/32. A close below that level is likely to fuel a sell off down to March lows and support at around 110 12/32
For this potential bearish picture to be demolished and reversed a close above 116 /8/32.

Medium-term the bearish trend is still intact despite a higher close in March. RSI having failed to close above 60 threshold on weekly chart thus still showing negative sentiment. A break below 113 26/32 is likely to accelerate the sell-off that could test the lower rising trendline. A break of the trendline could lead to a test of Q4 2022 lows at around 108 26/32.
An uptrend would be confirmed by a close above  117. With upside potential up to around 121.

Source: Saxo Group
Source: Saxo Group

German Gov’t Bond 10-year yields are in an uptrend after breaking above 2.40. Yields are currently testing the top of the Cloud and a close above could further fuel the uptrend.
An RSI close above 60 will add to the bullish picture.
There is no strong resistance until March peak at around 2.77.
To reverse this bullish picture a close below 2.12 is needed

Source: Tradingview

Medium-term yields are bouncing from the lower rising trend line and support at around 1.96. Uptrend is intact and needs to close below 1.90 to reverse it.
RSI is showing divergence but if it closes above its falling trendline new highs in yields should be expected. If taking out February peak at 2.77 there is no strong resistance until around 3.40 which is also 1.764 projection of the correction.

Source: Tradingview

EuroBund future is in a bearish trend. At the time of writing RSI is below 40 threshold and if it closes below the downtrend is confirmed with likely lower levels to follow. A move to test the March lows at around 130.77 could be seen. Support at around 133.17.
A close above 138.09 will demolish this bearish picture short-term

Medium-term the trend is still down. Despite showing RSI divergence which indicates a weakening of the trend lower levels could still be seen. If RSI closes below it falling trendline on weekly chart lower falling trendline could be reached.

To reverse the medium-term bearish trend a close above 140.30 is needed.

Source: Saxo Group
Source: Saxo Group

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited prepares and distributes information/research produced within the Saxo Bank Group for informational purposes only. In addition to the disclaimer below, if any general advice is provided, such advice does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of trading any financial instrument as trading can result in losses that exceed your initial investment. Please refer to our Analysis Disclaimer, and our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement. All legal documentation and disclaimers can be found at

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service. Access and use of Saxo News & Research and any Saxo Bank Group website are subject to (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; and (iii) the Risk Warning in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group.

Saxo News & Research is provided for informational purposes, does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. No Saxo Bank Group entity shall be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information on Saxo News & Research.

To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, such content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication.

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments.Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Full Disclaimer (
- Analysis Disclaimer (
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited
Suite 1, Level 14, 9 Castlereagh St
Sydney NSW 2000

Contact Saxo

Select region


The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

Saxo Capital Markets (Australia) Limited ABN 32 110 128 286 AFSL 280372 (‘Saxo’ or ‘Saxo Capital Markets’) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms, Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Saxo Capital Markets does not provide ‘personal’ financial product advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Capital Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. The Target Market Determination should assist you in determining whether any of the products or services we offer are likely to be consistent with your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website is not intended for residents of the United States and Japan.

Please click here to view our full disclaimer.