Macro: Sandcastle economics
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Q2 Outlook: A reality check for the euro area
Christopher Dembik
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Summary: The problems facing the Eurozone economy are neatly illustrated by fresh German data showing soft exports and contracting factory orders. While Chinese fiscal stimulus should help get Europe’s biggest economy back on track, expansionary fiscal policy across the bloc, as well as interest rate normalisation, are also necessary to ameliorate the ills of the euro area as a whole.
There is no such thing as global decoupling. Unsurprisingly, headwinds from China’s slowdown are starting to hit Europe and the US. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s euro area leading indicator, which is widely used by asset allocators globally, has fallen sharply over the past few months. The year-on-year rate stands at its lowest level since the end of 2012.
At the same time, large declines in core European industrial production data can be observed, especially in Germany, which accounts for one-third of European industrial activity. This slowdown came as a shock for many policymakers, but we feel that it was predictable. Over recent quarters, our leading indicators (notably credit impulse) led us to warn clients and investors against the risk of lower growth in Europe.
Low credit impulse and China
The euro area faces two main issues: low credit impulse and the Chinese slowdown. The euro area credit impulse, a key driver of economic activity, is running at 0.4% of GDP, which is rather low compared with its four-year average of 0.8%. A country-by-country analysis shows that the risk of growth decoupling between core countries and the periphery of the euro area is emerging again. In France and Germany, credit impulse is positive, at 1.7% and 0.6% of GDP respectively. By contrast, the credit impulse is sharply decelerating in the periphery; it was close to zero in Q4‘18 in Italy and sits at -2.1% of GDP in Spain, a level not seen since the end of 2013.
This tends to indicate that a more restrictive credit cycle, especially in the periphery, has started. This will have a negative impact on domestic demand as it is highly correlated to the flow of new credit in the economy, and ultimately on growth as well.
At the same time, large declines in core European industrial production data can be observed, especially in Germany, which accounts for one-third of European industrial activity. This slowdown came as a shock for many policymakers, but we feel that it was predictable. Over recent quarters, our leading indicators (notably credit impulse) led us to warn clients and investors against the risk of lower growth in Europe.
Low credit impulse and China
The euro area faces two main issues: low credit impulse and the Chinese slowdown. The euro area credit impulse, a key driver of economic activity, is running at 0.4% of GDP, which is rather low compared with its four-year average of 0.8%. A country-by-country analysis shows that the risk of growth decoupling between core countries and the periphery of the euro area is emerging again. In France and Germany, credit impulse is positive, at 1.7% and 0.6% of GDP respectively. By contrast, the credit impulse is sharply decelerating in the periphery; it was close to zero in Q4‘18 in Italy and sits at -2.1% of GDP in Spain, a level not seen since the end of 2013.
This tends to indicate that a more restrictive credit cycle, especially in the periphery, has started. This will have a negative impact on domestic demand as it is highly correlated to the flow of new credit in the economy, and ultimately on growth as well.
Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3
Sandcastle economics
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