Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Fairly Calm For a Change
Good Morning,
Worries from the retail and semiconductor sectors weighed on risk sentiments despite strong retail sales and falling US Yields.
Indexes in the US declined between 0.1% and 1.5%and the German Dax fell as well. Target lost 13% on a cur outlook and an earnings miss, Micron pulled the semiconductor sector lower. After hours, Nvidia beat expectations.
The USD Index remained fairly calm at 106.35, EURUSD 1.0385, GBPUSD 1.1905 and USDJPY 139.50, but Gold and Silver gave up ground on a perceived decline in geopolitical risks. Gold fell to 1765 and Silver 21.20.
Bitcoin is trading fairly stable despite the fact that Genesis Global Capital, a larger crypto operation suspended customer redemptions in its lending business, caused by FTX collapse.
Today we are waiting for the EU Inflation at 10.7% and the usual US labor market data at 11:00 and 14:30. Tomorrow at 8 wea re awaiting the UK Retail sales.
Surprises are not unlikely from fed speakers but it could also be a fairly quiet day to take a calm look at the market and consider opportunities to trade and invest – without the need to react.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.