Morning Brew June 14 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
Rising rate hike fears pushed US Yields higher, the 10 Year traded as high as 3.44%. Fear rose that after the high CPI on Friday, we could be looking at a 75bps hike tomorrow as the Fed tries to finally get inflation under control. This cand caused Equities so sell off globally and the USD to strengthen against basically everything else.
The SP 500 formally entered into a bear market – closing more than 20% off the high, it closed 3.9% lower below May lows and the next key support is 3,500
The Dow lost 2.8% and the Nasdaq 4.7%, Tesla fell to 648, down 7% Apple 3.8%, Alphabet 4.3% and Nvidia 7.8%. The GER40 fell to 13370 before recovering to 13590 Please find Kim’s technical comment here, The more fundamental one by Peter here. The ASX fell 4.6% and the Nikkei 2%.
The USD Index rose to 105.30 before calming to 105, EURUSD is trading at 1.0430 and GBPUSD 1.2180. The Yen is holding up having failed to breach the 135 significantly.
Gold and silver fell to 1808 and 20.90, currently at 1828 and 21.30.
Bitcoin was hit by the rate fears as well as renewed safety issues fuelled by the issues at Celsius, Bitcoin is trading at 22500 after trading 10000 higher last week, the low was at 20800.
Besides inflation and rates almost all other news take the backseat but the UKs decision to unilaterally change the Brexit agreement is likely to cause issues between the EU and the UK.
The German HICP just came out as expected or feared at an annual rate of 8.7%`
Later in the day we are expecting the German ZEW and the US PPI
Tomorrow: US FOMC with a 50 BPS hike expected with fears ranging to 75BPS
Thursday: Swiss National Bank, no change expected
Thursday: Bank of England, hike of 25BPS expected.
Friday: Bank of Japan, no change expected
Even if we are seeing a small recovery this morning remain extremely cautious and control your risk with every trade you take, complacency can cost dearly.
Consider Options for speculative bets to limit your risk.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.