Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew December 9 2022

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Risk on ahead PPI and University of Michigan.


Good Morning,

On higher than expected continued jobless claims, US rates fell and caused risk sentiment to rise. The Dow gained 0.5%, the S&P500 0.75 and the Nasdaq 1.3, overnight they add app. 0.3% on top.  Nvidia gained 6.5%, Apple +1.2%, Alphabet lost 1.3%.

US 10 year rates fell to below 3.5% an the spread between the 2 and the 10 Year yield is at the highest since the year 2000.

The USD Index remains below the 200d MA at 104.57, EURUSD is 1.0570 and GBPUSD 1.2265 - USDJPY is 136.10

Oil has lost app 13% from last Friday and interestingly, Gold and Silver chose to follow rates and not the old traders rule that Gold follows Oil and Silver follows Gold.

Chinas inflation fell on weaker demand.

Next week will be dominated by central bank decisions and today we are looking at the last inputs from the US, the PPI at 14:30 and the University of Michigan at 16:00 will be closely watched. The PPI is expected at 7.2%, down from 8% in November and the University of Michigan at 56.9%

As of now, the Fed is seen to hike by 0.5% with a probability, the ECB hike 0.5% with 75% probability, the BOE 0.5% with 95% probability and the Swiss also 0.5% with 66%.

Contemplate how much risk you want to carry into that crucial week and consider optionality.

 

Expiries

      

  Physically Settled Futures

Low Sulphur Gasoil - Dec 2022 will expire 09 Dec 2022 GMT

10-year Japanese Govt. Bond - Dec 2022 will expire 12 Dec 2022 GMT

Expiring CFDs

GASOILUKDEC22 will expire 08 Dec 2022 GMT

Australian Dollar/US Dollar December 2022 will expire 14 Dec 2022 GMT

Euro/Japanese Yen December 2022 will expire 14 Dec 2022 GMT

Euro/US Dollar December 2022 will expire 14 Dec 2022 GMT

British Pound/US Dollar December 2022 will expire 14 Dec 2022 GMT

Germany Mid-Cap 50 December 2022 will expire 14 Dec 2022 GMT

 

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • 350x200 peter

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • 350x200 althea

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • 350x200 peter

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • 350x200 charu (1)

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • 350x200 ole

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.