Pls use this Quick Take Asia 1142x160 Pls use this Quick Take Asia 1142x160 Pls use this Quick Take Asia 1142x160

Global Market Quick Take: Asia – September 19, 2023

Macro 4 minutes to read
Saxo-Strats
APAC Strategy Team

Summary:  Choppy trading session ahead of the key central bank decisions due in the week ahead. Crude oil continued its ascent and touched fresh highs, while Gold also continued to gather momentum. ECB officials were a touch hawkish, and EURUSD made its way back closer to 1.07 and AUDUSD may be looking ahead to RBA minutes due today.


The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events. 

MI 18 Sep 2023

US Equities: The markets attempted to rally from the recent range lows but ultimately retreated, resulting in the S&P500 and Nasdaq closing nearly flat. Energy stocks led in terms of performance as crude oil prices surged. Apple outperformed with a 1.7% gain, driven by optimistic analyst notes regarding iPhone demand.

Fixed income: With some concerns arising about the rise in crude oil prices, trading in the Treasury market remained calm in anticipation of the FOMC decisions on Wednesday. The 2-year yield saw a modest 2bp increase to 5.05%, while the 10-year yield dropped by 3bps, settling at 4.30%.

China/HK Equities: Property, consumer, and semiconductor stocks dragged down the Hong Kong equities market as investors doubted whether the recent green shoots in economic data could develop into a more significant recovery or stumble. The Hang Seng Index plummeted by 1.4% to 17,930. Macao casino operators outperformed as China's October Golden Week holidays approached. China's fiscal revenue in August declined by 4.6% YoY, underscoring weaknesses in land sales and other property-related fiscal revenues. The CSI300 performed better, gaining 0.5%, fueled by autos and pharmaceuticals.

FX: EUR saw a recovery towards 1.07 amid some hawkish rhetoric from ECB speakers pushing for higher-for-longer. NZDUSD pushed higher from yesterday’s lows of 0.5895 and CAD remains strong as well with oil prices still pushing higher. USDCAD drifted below 1.35 and 200DMA at 1.3464 is coming in view. AUDUSD was more subdued overnight but pushed higher to 0.6448 in the early Asian hours. USDCNH back close at 7.29 after being unable to go above 7.30 yesterday.

Commodities: Brent crude closed near a fresh 10-month high amid the supply constraints now spilling over to the refinery and diesel markets. Chatter on $100 oil continues to pick up, but we have little conviction that it would be sustainable. The approaching refinery maintenance season could reduce the demand for oil. Meanwhile, higher inflation could mean tighter monetary policies and OPEC+ cannot control the demand side. Gold momentum continued with XAUUSD back above $1930 despite higher 2yr yields with reports of China buying. Central bank meeting bonanza in the week ahead will be key.

Macro: ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said that underlying inflation should continue to moderate, while Governing Council member Peter Kazimir implied that September’s interest-rate increase may be the final one of the cycle. ECB Villeroy said the ECB will keep interest rates at 4% for as long as needed to tame inflation, suggesting no further rate hikes but staying consistent with the higher-for-longer message.

In the news: Instacart prices shares at $30 as IPO market warms up (FT). PBOC Meets JPMorgan, Tesla to Vow Foreign Business Support (Bloomberg).

Macro events: RBA Minutes (Sep), Canada CPI (Aug) exp 3.8% YoY (prev 3.3%).

Company events: Soc Gen. shares declined by the most since March 2020 after the bank’s new strategic plan disappointed investors, while Nordic Semiconductor retreated after the chipmaker reduced quarterly revenue and margin forecasts.

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

 

For a detailed look at what to watch in markets this week – read our Saxo Spotlight.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.