Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
NY Open: Wall Street shrugs off retail print
Michael O’Neill
FX Trader, Loonieviews.net
Hurricane Florence made landfall this morning. It has been downgraded to Category 1, but the sheer size of the storm suggests flooding will be like that of a Category 4 storm.
The storm, however, has not blown any ill winds onto Wall Street. The major indices have added to this week’s gains in early trading despite weaker-than-expected Retail Sales data. CPI and Core CPI were below consensus forecasts, but upward revisions to the July report offset the disappointment. Wall Street is emboldened by the mild thaw in US/China trade relations sparked by reports of a new round of discussions in the next few weeks. Pre-weekend profit-taking may limit gains today.
Chart: change in retail sales
Today’s US economic data flipped dollar losses at the open to gains by mid-morning. However, the morning’s moves barely moved the needle on the greenback's losses since last Friday’s New York close. GBPUSD, the biggest gainer for the week, rose 1.41% as of 13:30 GMT. The Japanese yen was the only currency to lose value. It fell 0.81%.
USDJPY is in an uptrend channel bound by 111.50 and 112.20 supported by a break of resistance at 111.60 and US 10-year Treasury yields flirting with 3.0%.
Global markets get a respite from top-tier US economic reports next week leaving traders to search elsewhere for direction. USDJPY traders will be focused on Wednesday’s Japan trade data and the Bank of Japan monetary policy report. As usual, it shouldn’t have any impact on FX markets as traders are more focused on US Treasury yields and US/China trade. The Reserve Bank of Australia minutes are out on Tuesday, but they won’t do anything to reduce the downward pressure on AUDUSD.
USDJPY is in an uptrend channel bound by 111.50 and 112.20 supported by a break of resistance at 111.60 and US 10-year Treasury yields flirting with 3.0%.
Global markets get a respite from top-tier US economic reports next week leaving traders to search elsewhere for direction. USDJPY traders will be focused on Wednesday’s Japan trade data and the Bank of Japan monetary policy report. As usual, it shouldn’t have any impact on FX markets as traders are more focused on US Treasury yields and US/China trade. The Reserve Bank of Australia minutes are out on Tuesday, but they won’t do anything to reduce the downward pressure on AUDUSD.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...