The G-10 rundown
USD – the USD neither her nor there, but looking firm against the weakest EM and against a struggling euro this morning. Watching the correlation with risk appetite after the chunky sell-off earlier this week failed to prompt notable USD upside.
EUR – everything at stake for the euro as noted above over the EU Council meeting today – key technical levels in EURUSD and EURJPY already under fire ahead of the meeting.
JPY – the yen picking up a bid here and there this morning as the market trades on a nervous footing ahead of the EU council meeting – most focus on EURJPY, therefore, and the 116.00-25 area.
GBP – sterling firmer against the weak euro, even as the UK Apr. flash Services PMI at 12.3 was somehow not the lowest PMI of the day, with that honor going to France’s flash Services PMI reading of 10.4.
CHF – the SNB may only be able to slow the progress lower if the euro breaks weaker still after today’s EU Council meeting – 1.0500 may be serving as some kind of technical level as well.
AUD – seeing a lot of macro consensus out there that any recovery is likely to boost basic materials first on infrastructure spending and otherwise, may be more of a driver of solid AUD outperformance in some of the crosses as there is little cheer when looking at risks for Australian stocks (especially if big banks suspend their dividends).
CAD – still have huge concerns for the cycle for Canada, but USDCAD is doing nothing here and failed to rally more forcefully despite the most apocalyptic action in crude imaginable (so far). Hopes that USD liquidity is anaesthetizing this market are the likely driver of lack of more compelling price action.
NZD – New Zealand credit card spending dropped -9.1% month-on-month in March, about matching the Retail Sales drop in the US for the month of March. AUDNZD has been quick to build a base and briefly posted a new high overnight (see possible drivers above in AUD). 1.0500 appears the support there.
SEK – EURSEK price action putting us to sleep – Sweden struggling close to capacity limits in health system if the Covid19 outbreak worsens on the nation’s rather unique, more open shutdown policy. Otherwise, curious to see how the market treats the EU council meeting outcome
NOK – EURNOK still slightly north of 11.50 level this morning despite crude oil price bounce yesterday – the highs may be in here local if the lows are in for longer-dated crude (track something like December 2021 crude more than next few front months), though we are unwilling to make that call.
Economic Calendar Highlights (times GMT)
- 1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
- 1300 – EU Council meeting starts
- 1345 – US Markit flash Apr. PMI
- 1400 – US Mar. New Home Sales
- 1500 – US Apr. Kansas City Manufacturing Survey