The G-10 rundown
USD – still a lot of wood to chop to call this a reversal in the USD rally, but in EURUSD, the resistance needs to come in around 1.1050 to argue against reversal risk there. The bar for a reversal is higher elsewhere, especially in EM
EUR – the euro getting a bit of relief in the safe haven crosses like EURJPY on the Brexit relief and recovery in risk sentiment.
JPY – the yen getting the worst of it here on the shift in risk sentiment and long yields backing up.
GBP – sterling relief rally deepening and could manage a go into the 1.2400-1.2500 zone in GBPUSD and toward 0.8900 in EURGBP.
CHF – surprisingly little upside relief on the Brexit news and back up in yields
AUD – AUDUSD bears beginning to suffer above 0.6800, but full reversal needs at least close above 0.6925 and more likely 0.7000 to suggest the downtrend from early 2018 is finally at risk of turning.
CAD – would be surprised to see the momentum off the Bank of Canada statement yesterday continuing, as USDCAD was poised for a binary outcome around the 1.3300 pivot. But theoretically, range to 1.3000 now open again, especially if equities march to new highs for the cycle.
NZD – NZD fighting back, probably as a function of everything that was weakest recently now doing quite well. Still looking for underperformance versus AUD.
SEK – Riksbank maintains commitment to rate normalization, if with a delay. The risk backdrop helps, but needs to continue and we need to take out 10.65-60 in EURSEK to discuss a more profound chart turnaround.
NOK – EURNOK pushing down toward range support near 9.90 and needs to progress through 9.80 to argue for deepening reversal.
Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT)
- 1215 – US Aug. ADP Employment Change
- 1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
- 1345 – US Aug. Markit Final Services PMI
- 1400 – US Aug. ISM Non-manufacturing Survey