FXO Market Update - June 03

The EURUSD rally that started in April has come to a stall as FED indicating they may start discussing tapering in the upcoming meetings. Market has reduced their positions and spot has traded around 1.2200 for the last two weeks.

There are a few important data over the next weeks with NFP tomorrow, ECB and US CPI on June 10 and FOMC June 16.

Vols have been trading sideways over the last month and implied vol currently trades at fair value, realized and implied are at the same level. Risk reversals does not show any sign of direction from here with front end risk reversals trading around flat.

We see this as a good opportunity to buy some gamma over the next weeks as all the data that will be released could shed some light on when the tapering might start and we could see volatility to pick up again. We still favor EURUSD higher long term, but short term over the events spot could go either way. We prefer to buy short maturities and 2 week, June 17, cover all the events.

Buy 2 week 1.2300 EURUSD call
Cost 27 pips

Alternative

Buy 2 week 1.2100 EURUSD put
Cost 30 pips

Spot ref.: 1.2190

• The Top/Bottom charts shows the top 5 and bottom 5 values/changes for at-the-money vol, risk reversal (RR) and risk premium of the 45 currency pairs we are tracking.
• Risk premium: Implied (Imp) minus realized volatility. A positive risk premium means implied volatility trades above realized volatility, i.e. the implied volatility can be seen as “rich”.
• Change: The difference between current price/volatility and where it closed 1w ago.

FX Options Trading:

You should be aware that in purchasing Foreign Exchange Options, your potential loss will be the amount of the premium paid for the option, plus any fees or transaction charges that are applicable, should the option not achieve its strike price on the expiry date

If you write an option, the risk involved is considerably higher than buying an option. You may be liable for margin to maintain your position and a loss may be sustained well in excess of the premium received.

By writing an option, you accept a legal obligation to purchase or sell the underlying asset if the option is exercised against you; however far the market price has moved away from the strike. If you already own the underlying asset that you have contracted to sell, your risk will be limited.

If you do not own the underlying asset the risk can be unlimited. Only experienced persons should contemplate writing uncovered options, then only after securing full detail of the applicable conditions and potential risk exposure.

Learn more about FX Options:

Forex Options – An introduction

Forex Options – Exotic options