Quarterly Outlook
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John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Investor Content Strategist
Tesla CEO Elon Musk committed to leading the company for the next five years.
Investors had doubted Musk’s dedication to Tesla after becoming close to the Trump administration and leading DOGE
Musk had hinted in the last earnings call that he would refocus on Tesla
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Elon Musk has committed to leading Tesla for the next five years, assuaging some investors’ fears that he was retreating from a hands-on leadership role.
“It’s not a money thing,” Musk said. “It’s a reasonable control thing over the future of the company.”
The comments appear to crystallize what has been, by the evidence of the stock price, a ‘good news’ story for Tesla since the last earnings update in April, when Musk said he’d step back from government work. Investors had doubted Musk’s dedication to Tesla after he had become close to the Trump administration and taken a leading role in driving government efficiency efforts and spending cuts through the newly-minted DOGE – Department of Government Efficiency.
On the earnings call last month, Musk said that he’ll spend much less time with DOGE starting in May. The commitment to remain at the helm for another five years confirms that he’s dialled back into Tesla fully.
Good News?
Many investors were worried that Musk was too focused on his White House role and not giving Tesla enough attention. Since the last earnings update and his promise to spend less time with DOGE, the stock has rallied about 50%.
That is despite the company’s quarterly earnings including a 20% year-over-year decline in automotive revenue and 71% drop in net income. Whilst some of the outsized rally can clearly be attributed to a broad rally in beaten-down tech shares, it seemed that investors were keen to see “more Musk”.
Board Pressure
Musk’s recommitment to Tesla comes after board pressure, with reports that members were frustrated by Musk’s time spent at DOGE. A Wall Street Journal report indicated some members of Tesla’s board were looking for a replacement. The earnings call comments indicated that Musk caved and was prepared to step back from frontline politics.
Campaign Donations
The question that some investors might ask is whether “more Musk” is actually a good thing. Musk’s proximity to the Trump administration and his vocal support for right-wing parties in Europe had created a brand problem for Tesla in some quarters, leading to protests and cases of vandalism.
Musk spent almost $300 million in the 2024 campaign to help return Trump to the White House. Today he said will spend a lot less on political campaigns in the future.
In stepping back from politics to a greater or lesser degree, investors will be hopeful that a) Musk is more focused on the core Tesla issues like declining sales in key markets, increased competition, particularly in China, rolling out robotaxis, and reliance on EV credits, and b) improve the brand’s image again by taking some time out of the Trump limelight.
But there is a lot of work to do, with sharp falls in sales in China and Europe in particular weighing on the outlook.
Nevertheless, Musk seemed upbeat while speaking today in Qatar, saying that the business has “already turned around,” adding that “Europe is our weakest market” and that Tesla was “strong everywhere else”.
Tesla faces plenty of challenges, but investors appear to think Musk is the best person to lead the company. His remarks should draw a line under any further doubts whether he will remain in charge for the foreseeable future.
What to watch for
Back in April we listed the key things investors should look out for.
Musk’s commitment: Watch carefully if Musk genuinely steps back from politics. His renewed attention could turbocharge Tesla’s recovery—but only if he remains fully engaged.
Product refresh and competition: Tesla urgently needs fresh, exciting models to counter rapidly advancing competitors like BYD. Without innovation, market-share losses may become permanent.
Robotaxi rollout: June’s Austin pilot launch is vital. Its success or failure could dramatically swing investor sentiment and define Tesla’s future business model.
Tariff risks: Pay attention to supply chain disruptions. Tesla’s resilience here could define whether it thrives or merely survives in a turbulent global economy.
Brand recovery: Observe Tesla’s efforts to rebuild trust among consumers alienated by Musk’s political stance. A successful turnaround here could quickly accelerate sales recovery, especially in Europe.
Job one on Musk’s commitment seems complete, while Tariff risks are clearly well diminished. The rest remain in question.