Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: New all-time high in S&P 500/US500 but likely more to come. Nasdaq 100 /USNAS100 pausing just below all-time high. Indicators pointing to a bullish break
S&P 500/US500 closed yesterday at an all-time high to within few points of 2.00 projection of the Q3 2023 correction (the Handle of the Cup and Handle pattern on the weekly chart) at 5,110
Daily RSI is back above 60 threshold but there is still divergence indicating uptrend is stretched. However, the weekly RSI made new high i.e., not showing divergence indicating medium-term trend could continue further. The 0.618 extension of the Cup and Handle pattern at 5,296 could be reached.
To reverse the bullish trend a close below 4,920 is needed
Nasdaq 100 closed yesterday just a few cents short of its all-time high. Daily close above 18,045 will confirm the bullish trend has resumed. A move to the 1.382 projection of the latest correct at 18,317 is in the cards. That is close to the 0.786 Extension of the Q3 correction at 18,374 – see weekly chart.
However, there could be further upside in store for Nasdaq. A daily close above 18,374 is likely giving further energy to 18,500-18,750 levels.
A daily close below 17,319 will reverse the bullish picture
USNAS100 cfd levels: Uptrend is reversing if closing below 17,315
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.