Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: DAX/GER40 closed just below all-time high but seems likely to have a nother go in next few days. Uptrend is strong
EuroStoxx50 uptrend is stalling at all-time high. Needs a close above to move higher
DAX closed just below all-time high Friday after spiking above just shortly
The trend is up however, and RSI has cancelled its divergence indicating higher DAX levels are likely
Friday DAX touched the 1.50 Fibonacci projection at 16,330 before receding, but if Buyers can lift the Index to close above the all-time high at 16.290 there is potential to the 1.618 projection at 16.477. However, reaching 17K which is just below the 2.0 projection is not out of the question.
To demolish the bullish picture a close below 16K is needed.
The GER40cfd closed Friday just below the all-time high but is likely to have another go at closing above in the next few days.
EuroStoxx 50 was rejected at the all-time high at around 4,415. A setback down to around 4,340 could be seen before buyers is likely to have another go in closing above all-time high.
RSI sending a bit of a mixed picture; It is still showing divergence indicating weakening trend but the sentiment is positive suggesting higher Index levels.
A close above 4,415 is likely to cancel the RSI divergence sending EuroStoxx 50 towards 4,500
A close below 4,340 I s likely to put the uptrend on hold.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.