Morning Brew May 11 2026

Good morning,

U.S. equities extended their strong performance on Friday, with the S&P 500 up 0.84%, the Nasdaq gaining 1.71%, and the Dow finishing broadly flat at +0.02%. The tone remained constructive, led again by technology and AI-linked names, while the broader market continued to benefit from resilient earnings and improving risk appetite.

One of the standout themes was semiconductors and memory. Nvidia added 1.8%, while Micron Technology and Sandisk both rallied more than 15%, underscoring how powerful the AI infrastructure trade remains. The latest earnings season also continues to support the market: of the 440 S&P 500 companies that have reported first-quarter results so far, 83% have beaten analyst estimates—well above the long-term average of around 67%.

For the week, the S&P 500 rose 2.33%, the Nasdaq advanced 4.51%, and the Dow gained 0.22%. That marked a sixth straight weekly gain for both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, the longest winning streak since October 2024. In other words, the market is still rewarding growth, earnings momentum, and AI exposure, while largely looking through geopolitical noise. It is an interesting time to take a look at 1-month movements—some are spectacular indeed: US Tech100 +16%, US 500 +8.5%, Intel +111%, Strategy +46%, Oracle +36%, Tesla +25%, Nvidia +18%, Bitcoin +10%, Silver +6.7%.

After the earnings report from Rheinmetall, JP Morgan cut the rating from “Overweight” to “Neutral” and reduced the target price by 30%. This caused shares to fall to a 52-week low at 1210, this morning, we recover to 1250

China’s PPI was much higher than expected, at 2.8%—a worrying level. The CPI at 1.2% also exceeded expectations but not as strongly. Expectations were 1.6% and 1.2%, respectively.

In FX, the key focus remains the inflation backdrop and the implied rate path. The dollar is likely to stay sensitive to any surprises in upcoming inflation data, while the euro and sterling should react to regional inflation and growth releases. For now, the market is in a wait-and-see mode, with currency moves likely to stay headline-driven until the next major macro data confirms the amount of pressure on central banks.

Precious metals also deserve attention. Silver was particularly strong over the past month, and both gold and silver continue to benefit from a mix of inflation hedging, geopolitical uncertainty, and broader portfolio diversification demand. If risk sentiment stays firm, the backdrop remains supportive as long as real yields and the dollar do not re-accelerate sharply.

Volatility remains relatively contained, which tells us the market is still comfortable taking risks despite the geopolitical headlines. The VIX is unlikely to stay this quiet for long given the packed macro calendar and the sensitivity around trade, inflation, and the Middle East. In practical terms, low volatility is supporting risk assets for now, but it also leaves the market more vulnerable to any surprise data point or policy headline.

Looking ahead, the focus is clearly on the week’s event risks. China CPI and PPI kick things off, followed by U.S. CPI, Germany inflation and ZEW, EU GDP, U.S. PPI, UK GDP, and U.S. industrial production. On the earnings side, investors will watch Barrick, Rigetti, GoPro, First Majestic, On, JD.com, Franco-Nevada, Alibaba, Wix, Cisco, and Klarna, among others.

Thursday is a Holiday in many parts of Europe so liquidity towards the end of the week may be thinner,

The other major geopolitical catalyst is President Trump’s trip to China. Markets will be watching closely for signs of de-escalation, tariff stability, and any framework that improves visibility for global supply chains, especially in semiconductors, AI hardware, and strategic industrial inputs. Even a partial thaw in U.S.–China relations could help sentiment, while any tension around Taiwan or trade concessions would likely keep volatility elevated.

Charu wrote a summary of the summit:

• The Trump-Xi meeting this week is not just a diplomatic event; it is a market event that sits at the intersection of the Iran war, oil prices, inflation, trade, rare earths, semiconductors, and AI supply chains.
• The most important market question is whether the U.S. and China can reduce the Iran-related oil shock without reopening a broader trade and technology shock.
• A constructive outcome could support risk assets, especially Asian equities, cyclicals, airlines, travel, selected China/HK names, and AI supply-chain stocks. A poor outcome could keep oil elevated, support the U.S. dollar and gold, and pressure risk sentiment.
• Investors should avoid treating the summit as a single all-or-nothing trade. A more balanced approach is to keep exposure to structural growth themes, retain geopolitical and inflation hedges, and watch for tactical opportunities if diplomacy reduces the war premium.

After Donald Trump rejected the Iranian proposal and amid high Chinese inflation, this morning we are trading risk-off—oil jumps 5%, indexes lose, and the USD gains.

Trade carefully!

Monday May 11
China CPI & PPI

Earnings: Barrick, Rigetti, GoPro

Tuesday May 12

Germany Inflation & ZEW, US CPI
Earnings: First Majestic, On, JD.Com Franco Nevada,

Wednesday May 13

Sweden & France CPI, EU GDP, US PPI,
Earnings: Alibaba, Wix, Cisco,

Thursday May 14

UK GDP, US Import Prices,
Earnings: Klarna,

Friday May 15

US Industrial Production

Monday May 18