Morning Brew March 25 2026

Good morning

As his ratings are at their lowest level ever, President Trump stated, "We're in negotiations right now," boasting that the Iranians had made a concession "worth a tremendous amount of money" without providing details.

It looks like the tension in the Middle East is cooling, even though Israel struck the Iranian capital while President Donald Trump said the U.S. was making progress in its efforts to negotiate an end to the war. Charu tried—with great success—to put things into perspective: Diplomacy or not, markets move before conflict ends

• Reports that the Trump administration has presented Iran with a 15-point proposal have given markets reason to price in the possibility of a pause in hostilities, even if a durable settlement still looks far away.
• Iran has every reason to resist public diplomacy. Maintaining pressure on energy markets, shipping routes, and global risk sentiment gives it leverage at the negotiating table.
• But wars rarely need to end before markets bottom out. Investors tend to move as soon as the probability of further escalation starts to fall.
• That means the real question is no longer just which areas may remain vulnerable if the conflict deepens, but which parts of the market may warrant closer monitoring if backchannels are active and markets begin to look through the war.

Oil is trading lower (US 89.3, UK 100.70). The VIX declines to around 24.40, US 10-year yields are 4.35, EU remains at 3, and the UK at 4.95.

EURUSD is 1.1590, USDJPY 159, and GBPUSD 1.3375. The Swiss Franc falls against the Euro to 0.9155.

Gold and silver trade higher at 4540 and 73, respectively. Bitcoin is at 71k.

The Japan 225 rises back to 53,000, the GER 40 is trading at 22,840, the US 500 at 6,595, the US Tech 100 at 24,147, and the US 30 at 46,430. US indexes lost ground yesterday on worries of a prolonged impact from the war. I am not focusing on the percentage changes at the moment because, due to the closing times, they can be highly misleading and suggest volatility that may or may not exist.

If there is a resolution in the Middle East, the tedious fallout will begin, where the damage of the war and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz will need to be assessed. Which companies will be affected by a lack of helium, sulfur, or fertilizers?

Economic data will need to be categorized as "before" and "after" to make sense of it. For example, the IFO data from today was compiled after the war started but before the easing of tensions this week, so we need to digest it carefully.

Please feel invited to sign up and join our webinar today at 13:CET:

War in Iran: Navigating Market Uncertainty

Wednesday, March 25, 2026

Australia CPI, UK CPI, Germany IFO, US Import Prices.

Thursday, March 26, 2026

Japan PPI, US Initial Jobless Claims,

Friday, March 27, 2026

UK Retail Sales, University of Michigan