Morning Brew March 16 2026

What a time …

We are witnessing an increasing questioning about the war in Iran as well as any sort of  a plan among the US administration, neither the ultimate goal nor the way to get there seems clear.

The blockade of the trait of Hormuz is turning into a major issue for the global economy, starting with Oil, LNG but also other resources.  Worries about severe oil shortage resulting in a massive spike in inflation keeps traders and investors on the edge. All three big US  Indexes have now suffered three consecutive weeks of losses. For the week, the the S&P lost 1.6%, the Nasdaq 1.3% and the Dow 2%. The Dollar index is at highest since November. Prolonged elevated  oil prces will hurt the economies of Japan, China  and the Euro Zone, which are heavily reliant on crude imports, while the United States would be relatively insulated, having been a net crude exporter for almost a decade.

The coming week, any news out of the middle east will be the main market driver, reactions from China, Japan Korea, and Europe can be expected as the most affected. This morning, flights in Dubai are suspended.

There seems to be a deepening rift between the US and friendly nations; Trump demands help to reopen the Straight of Hormuz and stated there was a bad future for Nato if the US would not receive assistance. At least Japan and Australia are openly defiant. Trump also threatened to cancel a meeting with Xi Xining if China does not assist.

This morning, Oil is higher with UK Crude at 104.85 and the US line at 99.40, Equities somewhat friendly with the US 500 at 6670, the GER40 23535 and the US Tech 100 24531. Gold and Silver remain weak at 5000 and 80, the USD index is trading at 100.1 with EURUSD 1.14.30, USDJPY 159.30 and GBPUSD 1.3245. EURCHF is at 90.40

This week, we are expecting 12 Central Banks to set rates and comment on the economic environment  so it will be busy:

Most important are the Fed on Wednesday which will release the new dot plot as well. At the moment , traders are pricing in the first full cut only in  2027  The Bank of Japan, BoE, ECB and the SNB will be in focus on Thursday  From a Swiss perspective, the question of an SNB Intervention looms: The Franc is uncomfortably strong, there is no real inflation and the fear of global stagflation  may cause a preemptive reaction by the Swiss National Bank.

Private Credit is another point of worry - where several funds have halted redemptions.

Meta is planning sweeping layoffs that could affect 20% or more of the company, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters, as Meta seeks to offset costly artificial intelligence infrastructure bets and prepare for greater efficiency brought about by AI-assisted workers. Friday, shares  slid 3.8% following a report that the company  has postponed the release of its artificial intelligence model "Avocado" to at least May.

A federal judge on Friday said he was blocking subpoenas that the Justice Department served to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in a probe purported to be about the management of the central bank's renovation, NBC News reported.

Expected Central Bank decisions this week: 

Bank Indonesia 62% No Change
Reserve Bank of Australia 77.2% for a hike
Federal Reserve 98% No Change
Bank of Canada 95% No Change
Bank of Japan 90% No Change
European Central Bank 90% No Change
Bank of England 97% No Change
Swiss National Bank 93% No Change
Banco Central do Brasil 60% No Change
Czech National Bank 90% No Change
Danmarks Nationalbank 95% Hike
China Loan Rate 
Sveriges Riks Bank95% No Change

Monday, March 16, 2026

China Retail Sales. Canada CPI, US Industrial Production,

Tuesday, March 17, 2026

Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank Indonesia,

Germany  ZEW

Wednesday, March 18, 2026

US Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada,

Japan Trade, EU February Inflation, US PPI&PPI

Thursday, March 19, 2026

Bank of Japan Swiss National Bank European Central Bank, Bank of England Banco Central do Brasil, Danmarks Nationalbank Czech National Bank

Japan Machine Orders, UK Labor data,  US Initial Jobless Claims

Friday, March 20, 2026

China Loan Rates, EU Trade Balance,