Morning Brew February 13 2026

Good morning,

Today, the US CPI will hit nervous markets!

U.S. consumer prices likely maintained a steady pace of increase in January as businesses raised prices at the start of the year, which, together with a stabilizing labor market, could allow the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged for a while. The CPI and the Core CPI are expected at 2.5% annually and 0.3% monthly.

Transportation and software were under pressure yesterday. Apple lost nearly 5%, AppLovin nearly 20%, C.H. Robinson ended 10% lower, and the Russell 3000 Trucking Index lost 7.8%. A new AI tool for logistics companies caused the selloff. It seems the focus was on areas likely to be disrupted by AI. In addition, a warning from Lenovo that deliveries may slow due to chip shortages caused HP and Dell to fall by 0.4% and 8.6%, respectively.

Equinix jumped 11% after the largest data-center operator forecast annual revenue above estimates

The Dow dropped 1.34%, the S&P 500 fell 1.57%, and the Nasdaq lost 2.03%.

This morning, the US30 is trading below the 50k level at 49,350, the US500 at 6,820, and the GER40 at 24,860. The Japan 225 is trading 0.6% lower at 57,130.

US 10-year yields are at 4.11%, and the USD Index is above 97 as EURUSD falls to 1.1860, the pound to 1.36, and the yen to 153.10. The yen was set for its best week in almost 15 months on Friday, having climbed steadily after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's historic election win allayed some investor worries about the nation's fiscal health.

In my note yesterday, I made the mistake of reading the calendar incorrectly: the Swiss CPI is due today at 8:30.

Gold and silver sold off massively yesterday, likely driven by technical factors and moves ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday. This morning, we are trading at 4,960 and 76.50. Bitcoin is failing to find momentum and is hovering at 66k.

The US administration announced the repeal of the scientific finding that greenhouse gas emissions endanger human health and eliminated federal tailpipe emissions standards for cars and trucks. This is a massive move as it withdraws the legal basis for emission regulation. Also, a number of key tech security measures aimed at Beijing were loosened ahead of the April meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump.

The Munich Security Conference starts. At last year’s, JD Vance made his noteworthy appearance, flabbergasting the US’s allies.

It is difficult to predict how sentiment will go today. The US CPI will be a key driver as it will confirm or change the Fed’s rate path. Besides that, many traders are noting that yesterday’s “sell everything” move was noteworthy and cause for high vigilance.

Friday, 13 Feb 2026

United States: CPI & Core CPI (Jan)

Eurozone: GDP Q4 (2nd estimate), Trade Balance (Dec)

 Earnings: NatWest Group (NWG) Q4 2025, Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY) Q4 2025, Deere & Company (DE) Q4 2025, Arbor Realty (ABR) Q4 2025, other scheduled mid-caps