Morning Brew April 27 2026

Good morning,

We’re looking at a packed week ahead...

It’s the ninth week of the Iran conflict and there’s still no clear resolution in sight. U.S. President Donald Trump shared with Reuters on Friday that Iran is preparing an offer to meet U.S. demands  “They’re making an offer and we’ll have to see,” Trump said. However, negotiations fell through again over the weekend.

What we’re watching for this week: 

Key data releases are coming up, including inflation figures and Purchasing Managers’ Indexes from both the EU and U.S., plus the U.S. GDP, among others.
Several central banks are announcing rate decisions, including Canada, the U.S., the European Central Bank, England, and Japan.

Earnings season heats up, with five out of the “Magnificent Seven” tech giants reporting on Wednesday and Thursday. Big oil companies will release their numbers on Friday, and UBS is also scheduled to release its figures on Wednesday, making this the busiest week for our clients' portfolios this earnings season

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended Friday at all-time highs, driven by hopes for renewed U.S.-Iran negotiations and a strong rally in Intel shares, which lifted semiconductor stocks. The Dow slipped by about 80 points to 49,231, while the S&P 500 added nearly 57 points to 7,165, and the Nasdaq jumped almost 400 points to 24,837. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 0.6%, Nasdaq rose 1.5%, and the Dow dropped 0.4%, ending its three-week winning streak.

Intel surged 24% to close at a record $83 and was the top performer on the S&P 500 after a stronger-than-expected revenue forecast for Q2. Chipmakers AMD and Arm also rallied, both up around 14%. Nvidia climbed over 4% and closed at a record as it approaches the $5 trillion mark again.
Trading volume on U.S. exchanges hit 17.8 billion shares, down slightly from last week’s 18.4 billion.

Europe had a negative week in the end: France’s CAC 40 dropped 3.2%, the EuroStoxx 50 fell 2.9%, Italy’s FTSE MIB was down 2.5%, and Germany’s DAX lost 2.3%. Spain was the worst performer, falling 4.3% on Friday, mostly due to weakness in the banking sector.

This morning, after the renewed cancellation of peace talks, oil is trading higher, weighing on sentiment—overnight swings were substantial. Silver has already moved USD 2 since the open and is now at 75.70. Gold is at 4610. The USD index is a little lower at 9847. EURUSD is 1.1725, GBPUSD 1.3535, and USDJPY 159.40. WTI is at 96 and UK Crude at 107.

The U.S. is ending the investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Republican Senator Thom Tillis on Sunday said he would allow Senate confirmation of Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh to go forward after the Department of Justice on Friday dropped the investigation into Powell.

Trump used the shooting at the White House Correspondents' Association dinner to promote the new White House ballroom and security upgrades, compare himself to Lincoln, and highlight his administration's achievements.

The U.S. State Department has issued a warning about widespread attempts by Chinese companies—including AI startup DeepSeek to steal intellectual property from American artificial intelligence labs.

The week ahead may be a little different from recent ones. While the situation in the Middle East will remain in the spotlight, economic data and commentary from central bankers could shift the focus from an imminent resolution to the broader consequences of the war and resulting shortages.

Tangible progress with Iran would, of course, change the picture, but I expect markets will stop paying much attention to announcements by Team Trump without confirmation from the Iranian side—even if this sounds rather difficult to accept.

Charu wrote a preview as the Fed`s last meeting with Jerome Powell as the Head o Fed meeting preview: Powell’s last word – no cut, but plenty of signals

A few key thoughts:

1. This looks like a hold, but not a quiet one: Our view is that Powell is likely to defend patience rather than validate a clear rate-cut timeline. With oil prices elevated and inflation risks back in focus, the Fed may be reluctant to sound too dovish even as growth momentum softens.
2. Energy inflation is the swing factor: The key question is whether the Fed treats the oil-driven inflation impulse as temporary or persistent. That will shape how markets price rate cuts, duration, the dollar and gold.
3. The Warsh transition adds another layer: Markets may start to price a more dovish Fed under Kevin Warsh, but the chair does not move policy alone. The broader FOMC still matters, especially with inflation above target and energy risks elevated.
4. Fed day overlaps with Big Tech earnings: The Fed decision comes before major tech earnings from Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft after the close. By Thursday morning, markets will be digesting Powell’s policy signal and Big Tech’s AI capex, cloud demand, margins and guidance together.

Monday, April 27, 2026

Japan Leading Indicator

Tuesday, April 28, 2026

Japan unemployment, Hungary and Japan rate decisions, plus U.S. consumer confidence.

Earnings: Novartis, UPS, Coca-Cola, Spotify, GM, Robinhood, Visa.

Wednesday, April 29, 2026

Australia CPI, Germany CPI, U.S. durable goods, Canada and U.S. rate decisions.

Earnings: UBS, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Ford, Qualcomm.

Thursday, April 30, 2026

Japan industrial production, China PMI, Swiss KOF, Germany GDP, EU inflation, U.S. PCE, ECB and Bank of England rate decisions, U.S. GDP.

Earnings: Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Apple, Reddit.

Friday, May 1, 2026

Labor Day in the U.S. and PMI data.

Earnings: Chevron, Exxon, Moderna, Linde.

Monday, May 4, 2026

Global PMI