Morning Brew April 23 2026

Good morning,

Oil rises on increasing tensions in the Middle East – the U.S. line is at 94 and the U.K. is above 100 again. This weighs on risk sentiment in the usual way: indexes give up ground, the USD index gains. Precious metals fall and yields are higher. Iran seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz with no sign of peace talks restarting

This morning, the US 500 is at 7,106, the US Tech 100 NAS is at 26,836, and the GER40 is at 24,016. Gold and silver are at 4,716 and 76, respectively. The USD index is 98.45, with EUR/USD at 1.17, GBP/USD at 1.3490, and USD/JPY at 159.50.

Bitcoin gained significantly yesterday and is now 78155.

Tesla managed to beat expectations and shares rose 4% after hours. It is expected to boost capital expenditures for AI, robotics, and chips, resulting in a negative free cash flow through 2026. Vehicle deliveries rose 6.3% year-on-year, but the core auto business faces competitive pressure.

Nestlé and Heineken beat estimates on strong demand, Roche  announced that first-quarter sales declined 5% because of negative foreign exchange effects but rose 6% at constant exchange rates, driven by its pharmaceuticals division acc to Reuters, the negative impact is less than expected. The Swiss National Bank reported a 1st quarter loss on their FX positions. UBS is vehemently opposed to the new capital requirements that were announced yesterday, the new regime would require UBS to boost equity by at least 10%. 

We are awaiting Global PMI and several important earnings today, but Iran will make or break the day. It is becoming clearer every day that there is not a lot of strategy in place on the U.S. side of the negotiation.

In Europe, economic worries are mounting and growth forecasts are being cut. The German government now expects 0.6% growth in 2026, down from the previous 1.3%. For 2027, they project growth at 0.4%, less than half their prediction from late last year of 0.9%. Meanwhile, Germany's biggest worry is the poor buckle whale stranded in the Baltic Sea, and the U.K. is focused on the Mandelson affair rather than the key issues.

EVs are continuing their success story: Having risen by about 15% both in January and February, registrations of battery electric vehicles jumped by around 42% in March, according to Reuters. Demand for rooftop solar systems across Europe has surged since the start of the Iran war, as households rush to shield themselves from soaring power prices.

As always, expect sharp moves at any point in time while we are awaiting progress in the middle east and outbursts by Donald Trump, As he is getting pushed further against the wall from former allies and internationally, he is not likely to calmly evaluate the situation to make well considered decisions but to deflect and attack.

Possibly the ideal solution would be it the US withdraws from the situation and leaves the mess for the rest of the international community to clean up.

An EU summit is taking place in Cyprus the next two days, 

Thursday, April 23, 2026

Data: Global PMI, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims

Earnings: Nokia, Blackstone, Dow, American Airlines, American Express, Intel, Newmont

Friday, April 24, 2026

Data: U.K. Retail Sales, Japan CPI, Germany Ifo Business Climate, U.S. University of Michigan

Earnings: P&G

Monday, April 27, 2026

Data: Japan Leading Index