Market Quick Take – 25 August 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: Fed-fueled U.S. surge; Europe firm on autos and activism; Asia mixed with China/HK stronger; UK marginally higher.
• Volatility: Vol plummets on risk-on surge
• Digital Assets: Ethereum hits all time high Sunday before retracing, Bitcoin falters
• Fixed Income: US treasury yields drop on Fed Chair Powell speech
• Currencies: USD sold off heavily on Fed Chair Powell speech
• Commodities: Powell’s precious metal boost. Crude focus on supply risks and record short WTI positioning
• Macro events: US July New Home Sales, UK Markets Closed

Macro headlines

• US Fed Chair Powell indicated a probable interest rate cut next month amid a softening labor market. Traders see an 84% chance of a September cut followed by further easing in Q4. A steepening yield curve and rising ISM and S&P PMIs highlight inflation concerns.
• Canada's retail sales are estimated to have fallen by 0.8% in July 2025, marking the second-largest decline in over a year due to volatile US trade policy impacts. This follows a 1.5% increase to C$70.2 billion in June, slightly below the 1.6% preliminary estimate.
• US President Trump announced a major tariff investigation on US furniture imports, to be completed in 50 days, with the rate undetermined. US food groups seek tariff exemptions, arguing products like fish and cucumbers can't be affordably grown domestically, per FT.
• Bank of Japan Governor Ueda stated at Jackson Hole that the labor market is expected to stay tight, affecting wages unless there's a significant demand shock. He noted increased competition for workers and job-switching, emphasizing ongoing monitoring of labor market trends for monetary policy adjustments.
• Nvidia earnings on Wednesday after the markets close are the next major market risk event with traders hoping it can soothe fears about AI spending and effectively confirm that the stock market’s latest rally isn’t just a technology bubble. It’s the biggest weight in the S&P 500 at almost 8%, and its position at the center of AI development have made it a bellwether of the broader market.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

• 0800 – Germany Aug IFO Business Climate
• 1230 – US Jul. Chicago Fed National Activity Index
• 1400 – US July New Home Sales
• UK Markets Closed

Earnings events

Note: earnings announcement dates can change with little notice. Consult other sources to confirm earnings releases as they approach.

• Wednesday: Nvidia , Crowdstrike, Snowflake
• Thursday: Dell, Marvell Technologies, Autodesk

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA
U.S. stocks rallied after Chair Powell signaled September easing risk, with the S&P 500 up 1.5% and the Nasdaq 1.9% as rates fell and cyclicals caught a bid. Meta rose 2.1% and Alphabet 3.2% on reports of a multi-year Google Cloud deal supporting AI workloads, while Tesla jumped 6.2% into the risk-on close. Intel gained 5.5% after reports of a prospective U.S. government stake, adding to AI-supply chain optimism. Focus turns to data and follow-through after the best cross-asset day since April.

Europe
European stocks advanced as autos and selected industrials outperformed. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.5% and the Stoxx 600 added 0.4%. AkzoNobel jumped 6.9% after activist investor Cevian disclosed a stake, while Stellantis climbed 4% and Mercedes-Benz added almost 2% alongside a firmer autos tape. The tone stays data-dependent into this week’s macro prints.

Asia
Regional performance was mixed into the new week’s policy calendar: Nikkei 225 was little changed, Hang Seng rose 0.9%, and CSI 300 gained 1.5% into the prior close. Hong Kong tech and China chips led, with SMIC +6% on AI-chip momentum headlines, Wuxi Biologics +3% after interim results support, and Kuaishou +2.8% as platform names rebounded. Investors watch China policy signals and global rate expectations.

UK
FTSE 100 +0.1% as energy and banks steadied the tape. Standard Chartered rose 4.0% after a U.S. court ruling in its favor on Iran-related claims, while BP gained 1% alongside firmer crude. BAE Systems was flat as defense underperformed into the risk-on end to the week.

Digital Assets

Bitcoin closed at $112,840 (−0.6% d/d) and Ether at $4,720 (−1.3% d/d) on the 00:00 UTC cut. Friday’s U.S. spot BTC ETFs posted $23.2m net outflows, with IBIT −$198.8m offset by ARKB +$65.7m and FBTC +$50.9m; spot ETH ETFs saw $337.7m net inflows, led by FETH +$117.9m and ETHA +$109.4m.

Volatility

Spot VIX 14.22 sits below the Sep future at 17.00, keeping the term structure in contango; VIX1D printed 9.47. On the SPX 6,466.91 close, the VIX-based daily move is 57.9 points, or 0.9%.

Fixed Income

• US Treasury yields fell sharply all along the US treasury yield curve Friday in the wake of Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole symposium speech, at which he raised concern on the trajectory of the US labor market, making it far more likely that the Fed will cut rates at the September FOMC meeting and seeing the market price a bit more easing over the next several meetings than previously. The benchmark US Treasury yield fell ten basis points to just below 3.70% on Friday before rebounding to start the week. The benchmark 10-year yield fell about basis points to 4.25%. Both benchmarks remain within the range established in recent weeks.
• Japanese government bonds once again ignored developments elsewhere as yields in Japan hardly reacted to the Friday drop in US Treasury yields, as the benchmark 10-year JGB yield remained pinned near the post-2008 high of 1.62%+ posted on Friday.

Commodities

•  Precious metals, led by silver, gained on Powell’s dovish tilt as lower funding costs were set against still-stubborn inflation. Yet, despite the slump in yields and the dollar, the rallies stopped short of a technical breakout, leaving the path higher uncleared. Silver must first clear USD 39.53 and gold USD 3450 to confirm a shift. Attention now turns to the dollar and incoming US inflation data later this week.
• Crude oil held steady after a three-day advance, supported by broader risk appetite and renewed supply concerns as hopes for a US-brokered peace deal with Russia fade. Washington has threatened to double tariffs on all imports from India to 50% by Wednesday in retaliation for its continued purchases of Russian oil. Meanwhile, with managed money holding a record net short in WTI crude (ICE and CME combined), a supply-driven rally risks forcing a speculative buying response.

Currencies

•  The US dollar sold off sharply on Friday after Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, with EURUSD leaping well above 1.1700 from lows below 1.1600 before the speech. After peaking just above 1.1740 on Friday, the consolidation took the pair back below 1.1700 briefly overnight in the Asian session to start the week. Similarly, USDJPY sold off sharply on Powell’s rhetoric, falling from above 148.50 to below 146.60 at one point late Friday before rebounding to near 147.50 overnight in the Asian session.
• EURSEK posted its lowest daily close since July 10 on Friday at 11.129, with the SEK rally clearly associated with the global risk-on surge sparked by Fed Chair Powell’s dovish speech.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.