Market Quick Take – 11 September 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: US notched fresh highs as cooler PPI and an Oracle surge lifted tech; Europe slipped ahead of the ECB; Asia firm on Wednesday with Hong Kong at a four-year high and Japan higher
• Volatility: VIX mid-teens, VIX1D spike, steady backdrop, CPI risk, SPX ±35pts
• Digital Assets: BTC/Eth steady, IBIT inflows, ETHA rebound, altcoins mixed, Gemini/Figure IPOs
• Fixed Income: US treasury yields steady ahead of US CPI
• Currencies: USD refusing to roll over after recent test of support. Scandies firm further
• Commodities: Gold pauses after strong gains ahead of CPI. Crude remains stuck
• Macro events: US August CPI, US Treasury to auction 30-year T-bonds

Macro headlines

• US producer prices fell 0.1%, marking their first decline in four months and contrasting with a 0.7% rise in July. This unexpected drop was driven by a 0.2% fall in service costs, mainly due to lower margins in machinery and vehicle wholesaling. Prices for goods rose 0.1%, led by a 2.3% increase in tobacco products.
• US core producer prices, excluding food and energy, fell 0.1%, defying the expected 0.3% rise and following July's revised 0.7% increase. This marks only the third drop since the pandemic's second quarter in 2020. Service prices fell 0.2%, while goods prices rose 0.1%. Annual core producer inflation slowed to 2.8% from 3.4%. President Trump called on the Fed to make a “big” interest rate cut saying there is “No Inflation”.
• US CPI for August, due today, is the last key release before next week’s Fed decision. Inflation is seen rising to 2.9% from 2.7%, above target, while the ex. food and energy reading is expected to remain at 3.1%, with the PPI figures suggesting that price pressures are not growing as fast as expected despite tariff levels rising to the highest since the 1930s.
• Japan's producer prices rose 2.7% year-on-year, up from 2.5% in July, matching expectations. Increases were noted in transport equipment, food and beverages, and non-ferrous metals, while slower growth occurred in electronics and metal products. Prices dropped for chemicals, iron, steel, and petroleum products. Monthly prices fell 0.2%, exceeding the 0.1% forecast, after a 0.3% rise in July.
• US average interest rates for 30-year fixed mortgages fell to 6.49%, the lowest since October 2024, from 6.64% prior. The drop aligns with Treasury yields decreasing after a weak jobs report, bolstering expectations for Fed rate cuts.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0800 – IEA's Monthly Oil Market Report
1215 – ECB Rate Decision
1230 – US Aug CPI
1230 – US Initial Jobless Claims
1430 – EIA's Natural Gas Storage Change
1700 – US Treasury to auction 30-year T-bonds

Earnings this week

• Today: Adobe, Kroger

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: S&P 500 +0.3%, Nasdaq 100 +0.0%, Dow −0.5% as August PPI fell 0.1% m/m, firming bets on a cut next week. Oracle jumped 36.0% on a step-up in AI cloud bookings and backlog visibility, pulling Nvidia +3.9% while Apple −3.2% after an underwhelming iPhone 17 launch weighed on the Dow. CoreWeave advanced 16.9% on CEO comments that AI demand is still overwhelming. Synopsys sank 35.0% on a miss and softer IP outlook. The Trade Desk was down 12.0% as Amazon Ads and Netflix agreed to let advertisers purchase Netflix ad space through Amazon’s demand-side platform. Focus turns to today’s CPI print and the Fed’s path next week.
• Europe: Euro Stoxx 50 −0.2% and the Stoxx 600 was essentially flat as investors positioned for today’s ECB rate decision and new staff projections. Discretionary outperformed after Inditex +6.5% on a stronger start to autumn sales, while software lagged with SAP −2.9% dragging the DAX. Miners and defensives eased as yields slipped into the meeting. A hold is widely expected, with attention on 2026–27 inflation paths and QT guidance.
• Asia: Tone stayed constructive into Thursday’s session after Wednesday’s gains. Nikkei 225 +1.1% as tech strength offset yen firmness, while Hang Seng +1.0%, its fourth straight rise and a four-year high, as AI and property improved. Onshore China was steadier, with CSI 300 +0.2% as PPI deflation eased. Baidu +2.8% on model upgrades and Alibaba +0.6% aided tech. In Singapore, DBS +3.6% to a record, lifting the STI +1.1% as a broker upgrade highlighted yield support. Policy cues from US CPI and the PBoC’s near-term stance remain the near horizon.

Volatility

• Equity volatility remains contained, though short-term jitters picked up ahead of today’s key CPI release. The VIX edged up to 15.35 (+2.1%), still well below stress levels, while the one-day VIX (VIX1D) spiked almost 50% to 13.4, signalling traders hedged against immediate swings. SPX closed modestly higher at 6,532 (+0.3%), showing investors remain confident despite the inflation print risk. For long-term investors, the message is steady conditions with only mild hedging activity around events.
  Expected SPX move today, based on options pricing: ±35 points (~0.54%).

Digital Assets

• Crypto markets held steady, with Bitcoin at $114,300 (+0.3%) and Ethereum at $4,418 (+1.6%). ETF flows continue to shape sentiment: IBIT added +2.1%, while ETHA gained +0.7% after fresh inflows this week reversed earlier weakness. Altcoins traded mixed, with Solana down 0.8% and XRP flat near $3.0. Beyond prices, the IPO pipeline for crypto firms is heating up: Gemini is set to price its Nasdaq debut this week, targeting a $3bn valuation, while blockchain lender Figure raised $787m, highlighting growing investor demand for listed digital-asset exposure. The constructive tone reflects a market increasingly driven by institutional participation.

Fixed Income

• US treasuries are treading water ahead of today’s US CPI release for August, which is the last significant economic data point ahead of the FOMC meeting next Wednesday, with few expecting enough drama in the number to prompt the Fed to slash the policy rate by 50 basis points. A Treasury auction of 10-year notes saw very strong demand yesterday, especially from foreign bidders.
• European yields are steady ahead of today’s ECB decision and despite French political drama. The ECB has pre-announced that it is pausing its easing cycle for now. A significant slowdown in the economy and inflation or an aggravated rise in the Euro versus the US dollar are the only future developments that might prompt a change of plans.

Commodities

• Gold’s strong rally has paused, with traders awaiting today’s August CPI — the final key release before next week’s FOMC meeting, where the first rate cut of the year is expected. Despite a 40% year-to-date gain raising profit-taking risks, underlying bullish drivers remain.
• Crude trades steady after a three-day rise, holding in a USD 65–70 Brent range as focus shifts between geopolitical supply risks and weakening fundamentals as OPEC+ continues to ramp up production. A major escalation of sanctions against Russia would likely be needed to push prices higher in the short-term. Meanwhile US stockpiles rose for a second week as US refineries demand slowed. Focus today on monthly oil market reports from OPEC and IEA.

Currencies

• The US dollar trades steady, refusing to roll over after support levels were tested over the last two days. EURUSD is sticky near 1.1700, USDJPY near 147.50 and AUDUSD just above 0.6600 after a probe to new highs for the year above 0.6625 yesterday were rejected. Today’s US August CPI release could be a significant catalyst for USD direction.
• The Scandies, NOK and SEK, are firm against a rather feeble Euro, with EURSEK hitting new lows since June below 10.92 before bouncing and EURNOK likewise hitting new local lows since June yesterday below 11.60 after the slightly less soft than expected August CPI print. The market is divided on whether Norges Bank is set to cut rates at next Thursday’s Norges Bank meeting.

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