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US treasury yield spike pressurizing the USD focus.
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Résumé: A weak US 20-year treasury note auction sparked a fresh high in long US treasury yields. Seeing this combined with USDJPY continuing to grind lower is a remarkable departure from previous market regimes as the concern remains that the US fiscal trajectory will remain unsustainable on the passage of the Trump’s big tax cut and spending bill.
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Latest market moves:
Some modest moves in the market since yesterday. The chief thing to note is that the US dollar has held lower, with EURUSD holding the 1.1300 reversal so far and the Dollar Index holding below the psychologically important 100.00 level.
JPY strength continues with a bit more pepper late in the late Asian session today. This would mark the fourth consecutive session of USDJPY drops. There was a brief squeeze overnight in JPY crosses that was prompted by Japan’s trade negotiator Kato confirming that currency levels should be determined by the market (this was aired by a Japanese newspaper already yesterday) and that FX was not discussed with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in ongoing negotiations. But this quickly faded.
Again to belabor the point: remarkable to see the tectonic shift in the intermarket regime here as USDJPY continues its fall even as US 30-year yields threaten 17-year highs above 5.00% after yesterday’s weak 20-year auction unsettled the US treasury market. The theme remains one of the unsustainability of the US fiscal trajectory, which will require some form of treasury- and/or Fed intervention to at least cap US yields if not crush them back lower eventually. When a yield rise like yesterday’s sees risk off at the same time, the signal is particularly intense.
Chart: USDNOK
USDNOK is an interesting pair to pull out of the mix on a theme that has developed in recent weeks on the implications of the Trump administration’s attempt to reset global imbalances ing trade. By definition, any reduction in US trade deficits also means that the US would see a reduction of capital inflows into US capital markets (bonds, stocks, everything). If global capital flows go into reverse, those countries with the largest NIIP (Net International Investment Position) surpluses would see the largest reversal or bottling up of capital flows, leading to FX strength, while the largest NIIP deficit country is far and away the US. Japan and Switzerland are traditionally the larges NIIP surplus countries, but there are others, including the Norwegian krone, which unlike CHF and JPY sits at rather cheap levels. Much of this is because so much of Norway’s surpluses from its oil and gas profits are recycled into foreign capital markets, but one can’t help but wonder if this recent NOK surge is in part driven by this NIIP overlay, and if so, there is plenty of fuel left in the tank.
On that NIIP theme mentioned above, also worth noting that the UK is a significant NIIP deficit country and can’t help negative attention if this remains a prominent theme. There also seems to be a correlation between GBP and risk sentiment, as EURGBP surged a bit yesterday. In any case, keeping an eye on EURGBP, GBPJPY and even GBPNOK for signs of sterling underperformance.
Day and rest of week ahead:
Data highlights for the economic calendar into the weekend include the European Flash May PMI’s and the German May IFO survey up this morning, the ECB meeting minutes a bit later and the US weekly jobless claims up at the usual time. Tonight we get Japan’s latest CPI data and tomorrow seek UK April Retail Sales.
FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.
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The US dollar downtrend intensifying a bit further here. Note that GBP has lost a bit of altitude as well. Regarding the NIIP theme above, the big surplus countries like SEK and NOK are outperforming.
Table: NEW FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs. USDJPY has finally rolled over into a negative trend again as of the close yesterday according to our trend indicator. Elsewhere, interesting to note the crossover to a positive trend that is threatening in a number of silver “crosses”, though big interest in silver not likely to pick up until we are threatening into the 35.00+ level in XAGUSD.