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COT Report: Dollar-selling persists; Crude length trimmed ahead of OPEC output hike
Matières premières
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
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Key points:
- Our weekly commitment of traders update highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across forex and commodities during the week ending Tuesday, 29 April 2025.
- The dollar-selling theme remained intact, despite some emerging strength, with speculators lifting the gross USD short versus eight IMM futures to an eight-month high.
- Commodity markets faced another challenging period marked by mixed performance both within and across sectors, often leading to position changes that were not aligned with the direction of individual prices.
- Speculators trimmed long positions in crude oil ahead of the latest OPEC+ production increase, while continued gold selling saw the net long slump to a 14-month low.
Forex:
COT on forex covering the week to 29 April showed that, despite some emerging USD strength, the dollar-selling theme remained intact, with speculators lifting the gross USD short versus eight IMM futures to an eight-month high of USD 17.1 billion. While selling was broad, the main driver was renewed EURUSD buying, which increased the EUR net long by 10,769 contracts (USD 1.5 billion equivalent) to 75,769 contracts (USD 10.8 billion). However, the largest long against the greenback remains the JPY, after another week of light buying lifted the net long to a fresh all-time high of 179,000 contracts (USD 15.8 billion equivalent).
Commodities:
During the reporting week ending 29 April, commodity markets faced another challenging period marked by mixed performance both within and across sectors. This volatility often led to position changes that didn’t necessarily align with the direction of individual commodity prices. The Bloomberg Commodity Index recorded a marginal loss overall, with weakness in energy, precious metals, and grains partially offset by strength in industrial metals, livestock, and, notably, soft commodities.
On the positioning front, selling pressure was concentrated in Brent crude, natural gas, gold, corn, wheat, and sugar. Meanwhile, buying interest emerged in WTI crude, silver, platinum, copper, coffee, and cotton.
Crude Oil: Long Positions Cut Amid OPEC+ Output Expansion
Speculators trimmed long positions in crude oil ahead of the latest OPEC+ production increase. Both Brent crude and WTI fell back toward the four-year lows last seen in the aftermath of the March sell-off triggered by President Trump’s so-called “Liberation Speech.” The drop followed OPEC+’s decision to extend the 411,000 barrels-per-day production increase planned for May into June. This move raised concerns about a potential global supply glut, especially at a time when trade tensions threaten to dampen demand.
Saudi Arabia has hinted at the possibility of further monthly increases, citing frustration over persistent overproduction from member countries such as Kazakhstan, Iraq, and the UAE. The resulting price decline appears, for now, to have aligned Saudi interests more closely with those of the U.S.—specifically with President Trump—than with Russia, a key member of the OPEC+ group of producers. At the same time, the strategy may serve to discipline U.S. shale production, which faces headwinds in ramping up further and may even begin to roll over, if current low prices are being maintained in the coming months. This potential reduction in shale output could offer medium-term support for both crude oil and not least U.S. natural gas, as the supply of associated gas from shale wells diminishes.
Ahead of the weekend announcement, managed money long positions in crude oil declined by 15,700 contracts to 226,500—well below the five-year average of 426,000 and the one-year average of 272,000. This suggests that choppy price action, the loss of momentum, and continued macro-driven selling are weighing on speculative interest.
Gold: Net Long Positions Drop to 14-Month Low Despite Underlying Strength
COMEX gold futures suffered a second consecutive weekly loss, continuing their correction from the all-time high of USD 3,500 reached last month. This weakness triggered a sixth straight weekly reduction in the net long held by managed money accounts, which fell to a 14-month low of just 116,000 contracts, a 55% from last September, when gold traded around USD 2,650.
However, despite the consistent selling pressure by Western speculative investors, gold has managed to stage a resilient performance overall. To understand this, one must look eastward—particularly at China’s role in driving demand. Chinese investors have in recent months become a dominant force in the market, primarily through local gold-backed ETFs, which have already exceeded their total 2024 inflows.
Persistent domestic demand—driven largely by retail investors—reflects growing economic concerns within China and uncertainties surrounding long-term U.S.–China relations. Last week’s dip in prices to around USD 3,200 occurred during the Chinese Labour Day holiday (through May 5), a period in which ETF inflows temporarily paused. As the Chinese market reopens on May 6, investor response will provide a crucial short-term signal for gold’s next move.
What is the Commitments of Traders report?
The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.
Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and other
Financials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and other
Forex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators)
The main reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of speculators, such as hedge funds and trend-following CTA's are:
- They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged
- This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments
- It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming
Do note that this group tends to anticipate, accelerate, and amplify price changes that have been set in motion by fundamentals. Being followers of momentum, this strategy often sees this group of traders buy into strength and sell into weakness, meaning that they are often found holding the biggest long near the peak of a cycle or the biggest short position ahead of a through in the market.
Recent commodity articles:
1 May 2025: Gold corrects sharply from record highs as Chinese demand pauses
29 April 2025: Copper navigates energy transition supply shocks and market turmoil
28 April 2025: COT Report: Continued gold selling; USD weakness drives record JPY long
25 April 2025: Commodities weekly Energy slump overshadows strength in gold and agriculture
23 April 2025: Blowout top leaves Gold in consolidation mode
22 April 2025: Commodities return Why allocation matters
16 April 2025: Whats next as gold hits our USD 3300 target
15 April 2025: COT Reports show hedge funds racing to cash post-Liberation Day
11 April 2025: Commodities weekly As chaos reigns whats next for markets
10 April 2025: YouTube Interview: Gold, silver, copper, oil - prices, supply, demand in 2025
8 April 2025: Golds deleveraging pullback fails to shake supportive outlook
8 April 2025: Golds deleveraging pullback fails to shake supportive outlook
7 April 2025: COT on Forex and Commodities - April 7 2025
4 April 2025: Commodities weekly Tariff-led recession pain triggers sharp reversal
3 April 2025: Tariff-related recession fears ignite widespread commodities selloff
2 April 2025: Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty
31 Mch 2025: COT Report: Ongoing USD selling amid mixed week for commodities
26 Mch 2025: Commodities show strength in Q1, led by a select few
25 Mch 2025: Crude oil Sanctions threat counters tariff-driven demand worries
24 Mch 2025: COT on Forex and Commodities - 24 March 2025
21 Mch 2025: Commodities weekly: High-flying precious metal sees profit taking
19 Mch 2025: Has the gold express already left the station?
17 Mch 2025: COT Report: Silver and copper stands out in week of energy weakness
14 Mch 2025: Gold surges past USD 3,000 as haven demand grows
12 Mch 2025: Tariffs and the energy transition: Key drivers of copper demand
11 Mch 2025: Gold holds steady despite deleveraging risks in volatile markets
10 Mch 2025: COT Report: Wholesale reductions in speculators' USD and commodity longs
7 Mch 2025: Commodities Weekly: Tariffs, trade tensions, fiscal bazooka, and Ukraine
5 Mch 2025: Tariff threat disconnects HG copper from global market
4 Mch 2025: Stagflation and geopolitical tensions fuel renewed demand for gold
3 Mch 2025: COT Report: Broad retreat sees WTI longs slump to 15-year low
Podcasts that include commodities focus:
23 April 2025: Trump going soft on tariffs versus the direction of travel.
11 April 2025: US and China are slipping into an economic war
4 April 2025: Markets melts down as recession risks go global
1 April 2025: Bracing for Liberation Day
25 Mch 2025: Did Trump just blink?
18 Mch 2025: US market found support, but how durable will it be?
14 Mch 2025: Is silver set to shoot the lights out?
10 Mch 2025: US un-exceptionalism is the theme
7 Mch 2025: US bear market risks ratchet higher. EUR train has left the station
4 March 2025: Are we on the verge of a big whoosh?