Macro Dragon: Phase One Deal Break Probability Rises...
Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.
EBC Preview : The calm before the storm
We are onside with consensus in expecting no change in monetary policy this week. Now the German court challenge has been defused, the ECB can focus on the future of its bond purchases. Technical discussions should concern the likely slowdown in the path of bond purchases this summer, further flexibility in the PSPP parameters, and early talks about the Strategy Review that is due next year, especially regarding climate change. The ECB is likely to remain on alert as the second economic wave of the COVID-19, characterized by business restructuring and permanent closures, is about to hit the Eurozone and fragilize the banking sector.