Preview: A meaningless U.S. June Employment Report
Due to data volatility, misclassification and the recent rise in new COVID-19 cases conducting many States to put reopenings on hold, investors should refrain from drawing any hasty conclusions from the U.S. June Employment Report published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics today. The U-3 unemployment rate, which is the most commented, is likely to provide a truncated view of the real state of the U.S. labor market. For the time being, we prefer to refer to the U-6 unemployment rate, which better gauges labor underutilization, and the employment-to-population ratio in order to assess the evolution of U.S. employment.
Monthly Macro Outlook : Hysteresis is becoming mainstream
A look at the key events that will move the markets this summer and the state of the global economy.
FX Update: NZD knocked lower by RBNZ. JPY surge fizzles
The RBNZ made it clear it will move against any further NZD strength in its latest statement, which knocked the NZD sharply lower overnight. Elsewhere, the USD rises and falls continue to slavishly inversely track developments in risk appetite while an unusual JPY surge yesterday has so far failed to hold.