Preview: A meaningless U.S. June Employment Report
Due to data volatility, misclassification and the recent rise in new COVID-19 cases conducting many States to put reopenings on hold, investors should refrain from drawing any hasty conclusions from the U.S. June Employment Report published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics today. The U-3 unemployment rate, which is the most commented, is likely to provide a truncated view of the real state of the U.S. labor market. For the time being, we prefer to refer to the U-6 unemployment rate, which better gauges labor underutilization, and the employment-to-population ratio in order to assess the evolution of U.S. employment.
Monthly Macro Outlook : Hysteresis is becoming mainstream
A look at the key events that will move the markets this summer and the state of the global economy.
Liquidity driven narrative remains intact but Gold knows there is no V-shaped recovery
Stocks trade mixed in Asia following a positive overnight lead with the Nasdaq 100 hitting a fresh record high. This as US indices closed off the highs of session following a continued rise in COVID-19 cases with hospitalisations also continuing to pick up largely in Southern States. COVID-19 patients in Texas hospitals have risen 61% in one week, threatening the prospect of a swift snapback in activity if restrictions are reimposed once more.