COT: Dollar selling continues despite lack of price reaction
Commitments of Traders report covering speculative positioning in FX, bonds and stocks in the week to January 14
Macro Dragon: Its about the BoE, not the ECB... Plus Trump vs. Macron Tues Could Spell Risk-Off
Macro Dragon = Daily Cross-Asset Global Views
We kick off WK # 4 with a Macro Dragon that looks at all the Major Central banks that will be meeting over the next two weeks including: BoJ, BoC, ECB, Fed & BoE - in addition to KVP's views we also link to the most recent statements. BoE is the most interesting given its recent tilt to the dovish-side & currently c. 70% prob of an insurance cut next Thu 30 Jan. This potentially creates some headwinds against sterling crosses & tailwinds for those tactically short sterling going into next wk. Biggest current market risk would be Trump / Macron (Tue?) fall-out on digital tax of US tech.
FX Breakout Monitor: USD poking at breakout levels amidst record calm
Record low volatility and a recent past littered with failed directional momentum trades are not inspiring confidence for breakout prospects, but the US dollar is poking at important upside break levels in places if it continues higher from here after starting with a recent break higher in USDJPY.