How to trade the Fed opening the door for a March rate cut
The coronavirus outbreak and implications for global growth could see the Fed turn far more cautious on the outlook for growth and especially inflation at the January meeting than the market currently expects. In this post we look at how to trade the huge possible moves in forward expectations for the Fed funds rate in coming months if the Fed takes the opportunity to guide expectations for a March rate cut.
Macro Dragon: Coronavirus, Fed & Bernie Sanders to win Mon 3 Feb Iowa Caucuses?
Macro Dragon = Daily Cross-Asset Global Views
Back in post the Lunar Holiday Break in the Lion City, KVP checks in on the latest on the coronavirus, as well as upcoming Fed mtg & the hugely under-priced risk in US EQ mkts from a potential Sanders (or Warren) win of the Mon 3 Feb Iowa Caucuses.
In addition to an update on the virus, which 'officially' is likely to cross over 5,000 confirmed cases today & potentially reach in the 120-150 range of total deaths - we also explore what we can likely say with high certainty in regards to ripple effects from the 2019-cCoV / Wuhan Virus / Novel Coronavirus
Bottom line the consensus big uplift in global growth at the start of the year (especially in China, EM & RoW vs. US) just got hit squarely in the face by a concrete-virus clad brick. The Fed probability of an earlier & bigger Fed cut/s will be getting priced soon.
Macro Dragon Special S1E3 - Current Outlook & Macro Views...
This is the first of a series of Macro Dragon Specials that will come through over the year - in this first series we will attempt to capture KVPs current thoughts on global macro and cross-assets over 2020, current outlook and assumptions, current strategic positioning views, risks, hedges and contingency plans... as well as what seems to be consensus vs what the market does not seem to be focusing on. Note these are very different from the daily Macro Dragon cross-asset views