APAC Strategy Team
Summary: This week, markets will be digesting the slew of central bank meetings from last week, along with the bumper jobs report, as more Fed speakers including Chair Powell take stage. The Reserve Bank of Australia may likely stay in the chorus and hike rates by 25bps as well, but focus will be on guidance. Bank of Japan’s nominees for the new chief will likely continue to send market jitters, while UK GDP is expected to dodge a recession. China’s inflation and credit data may throw further light on the economic momentum, but US-China tensions will also be on watch. Earnings calendar stays in full force with reports due from Disney, PepsiCo, Toyota as well as Adani Green.
After a hotter-than-expected US jobs report on Friday, equities and the VIX index, and the US dollar are on notice. Fed Chair Powell and several Fed speakers are due to speak this week and they could disagree with the Fed’s dovish tilt last week, which could spark a reversal of the risk-off rally we have seen since the start of the year. Powell will be speaking in Washington on Tuesday (1am SGT on Wednesday for Asia), followed by Barr, Williams, Cook, Kashkaru, Waller and Harker over the course of the week. Flight to safety could take the US dollar higher, and shave down broad indices. USD is also likely to find some support this week amid the rising US-China tensions after a suspected Chinese spy balloon was shot down over the weekend.
The Melbourne Institute Inflation gauge for Australia rose more than expected MoM & YoY, while Australian retail sales beat expectations. These indicators, coupled with building approvals seeing one of their biggest jumps in a decade, gives the RBA power to keep hiking rates. The RBA is expected to hike by 25bp on Tuesday, with the market pricing in another 25bp hike. However there is a small chance the RBA could keep hiking before pausing in July. The jury is still out. We are watching the AUDUSD and the EURAUD with the AUD having nose-diving as commodity prices fell from their highs, while the USD gathers strength. While the ECB hiked by 50bps last week. However, there is a risk the RBA could be aggressive in its commentary (more than prior meetings), which may perhaps trigger an AUD knee-jerk rally up. For more on FX, click here.
Monday morning reports from Nikkei that the government has approached Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya as a possible successor to central bank chief Haruhiko Kuroda sent jitters. The week was supposed to bring possible BOJ chief nominations, as the nominees list has to be presented to parliament on February 10. However, FM Suzuki refused to confirm Amamiya’s nomination. Amamiya has helped Kuroda since 2013 on monetary policies, and is considered the most dovish among the contenders, which is thrashing hopes that BOJ policy normalization could progress under the new chief. As more names are likely floated this week, there will potentially be some volatility in the Japanese yen and equities, with markets continuing to weigh up the possibility of a shift in Bank of Japan’s yield-curve control policy.
After a technical delay last week, Germany’s inflation prints for January will be due this week. Spain and France printed higher-than-expected CPI for the month, while the region-wide printed was softer last week. This suggests Germany’s inflation likely eased due to energy price increases being more subdued than previously expected. Meanwhile, adjustments in the CPI basket could also likely result in a softer print.
Riksbank meeting next week is also likely to bring a 50bps rate hike, after a similar-sized hike by the Fed, ECB and Bank of England last week. While inflation still remains entrenched, the Governor has recently hinted at financial stability risks, limiting the scope of another 75bps rate increase this month.
Lastly, the key in UK will be the preliminary GDP report for the fourth quarter which is likely to dodge a recession. Bloomberg consensus expect GDP growth to be flat QoQ in Q4 after a negative 0.3% QoQ print in the third quarter, underpinned by a strong labor market and fiscal easing. However, it is still hard to conclude that UK could avoid a recession, but only likely suggest a potential delay. If growth comes in weaker than expected, pressure on sterling could start to mount.
Chinese banks typically deploy proportionally a larger part of their annual loan targets at the beginning of the year. According to Bloomberg’s survey, economists are forecasting new RMB loans jumped to RMB 4,200 billion in January from RMB 1,400 in December which represent around 11% Y/Y growth in outstanding RMB loans, marginally below the 11.1% in December. While mortgage lending likely remained slow, corporate and government bond issuance increased in January. As corporate lending and bond insurance picked up, new aggregate financing is expected to rise to RMB 5,400 billion in January from RMB 1,310 billion in December, but the implied 9.3% Y/Y growth in total outstanding aggregate financing was below the 9.6% in December.
China’s Inflation may have accelerated as the headline CPI is forecasted to bounce to 2.2% Y/Y in January from 1.8% in December. A surge in in-person service consumption after the reopening may have underpinned some price increases but the upward pressure on the general level of inflation has remained moderate. Rises in vegetable and fruit prices were likely damped by a decline in pork prices. The decline in producer prices is expected to narrow to -0.4% in January from -0.7% in December as industrial metal prices bounced offsetting a decline in coal prices.
The Q4 earnings season is not over yet with 243 companies in the S&P 500 Index having reported earnings. This week’s earnings calendar will provide plenty of information for investors to chew on. The list below highlights the absolute most important earnings to watch and out of those the three most key earnings are from Walt Disney, Siemens, and Toyota.
The entertainment giant Disney is expected to report revenue growth of 7% y/y and EPS of $0.76 up 21% y/y and a lot of focus will be on Nelson Peltz, the activist investor that has gone into the company, and his quest for higher streaming profitability and potentially changing the asset portfolio of Disney. Siemens, one of Europe’s largest industrial companies, is expected to show revenue growth of 11% y/y and unchanged operating income compared to a year ago as cost pressures remain a key challenge for Siemens. Last quarter the order book and net new orders looked healthy, so the question is whether this will flow through into the outlook for 2023. Toyota is expected to report revenue growth of 19% y/y as demand for cars have come back, but the real interesting focus point on Toyota is further details on the new CEO’s aggressive move towards offering many more fully electric vehicles rather than hybrids. Toyota has recently indicated that they have made errors in their technology bet and looking to aggressively invest in battery EVs.
A bevy of EV and motor companies report this week including Toyota Motor, Honda Motor and Volvo Car. We think there could be a risk they report weaker than expected results, similar to Ford; which sent Ford shares 8% lower on Friday. Ford is struggling to make money on its EV business and blamed supply shortages. Metal commodities are a large contributor to car manufacturers costs. And we’ve seen components of EVs rise significantly in price, amid limited supply vs the expectation China will increase demand. For example consider the average EV needs about 83 kilos of copper- and its price is up 26%, 250 kilos of aluminium are needed - and its price is up 20% from its low. These are some headwinds EV makers are facing, in a market where consumer demand is restricted amid rising interest rates.
Financial results kick off with Suncorp reporting 8th Feb- this could be a good indication of what we can expect from big banks such as CBA that reports next week. Data last year showed loan growth in regional banks grew slightly more than the big four banks, so we could see earnings surprises in Suncorp and Bank of Queensland. The market expects 25% earnings growth from Suncorp, and flat growth from CBA next week. The Telco giant, Telstra reports on Tuesday, with a flood of property groups reporting such as Centuria on Tuesday, BWP Trust – the Bunnings landlord, as well as Dexus on Wednesday, followed by Mirvac and Charter Hall Long WALE REIT reporting Thursday. For defensive plays; the plastics giant Amcor reports Tuesday. While interest rate sensitive Australian Tech companies, which are not traded very much at Saxo; start to report this week with Megaport reporting Thursday, and real estate-tech business REA on Friday.
After over $100 billion in losses over the last two weeks, focus will remain with the Adani Group stocks this week in India as some of the companies start to report earnings. Adani Green Energy reports earnings this week, and investors will be looking out for comments on corporate governance, response to Hindenburg’s fraud allegations as well as the company’s financial position and debt trajectory. Adani Green is one of the most highly indebted companies in the group, and a big player for India’s net zero ambitions.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.